The Message of the Stock Market.......

[goofer]

The action of the housing stocks (joe, kbh, tol, bzh, dhi, hov, phm, ctx ) is telling us the Fed is finished raising rates. The market is also telling us that there will be a recovery in housing in the spring of 2007. The next major move in rates is DOWN. The Fed's work of the last 2 years raising rates has slowed the economy and tempered housing. The economic statistics will contine to deteriorate as well as the housing statistics but make no mistake about it, the recovery is coming in 2007. The Fed will begin lowering rates in the spring to generate growth. We will experience a growth rexession, which means GDP growth of 1-2%. We will NOT have a full blown recession...the FED will make sure of that. The stock market is a forecasting mechanism. The dawn is coming !!!

 

[Bob]

What would $100/barrel oil do to your forecast?

 

[redfisher]

You could have asked the same question 2 yrs ago about $75/barrel oil?...What would your response have been?...My reply is I don't have a clue, but here we are...

 

[SHELLY]

The action of the housing stocks (joe, kbh, tol, bzh, dhi, hov, phm, ctx ) is telling us the Fed is finished raising rates. The market is also telling us that there will be a recovery in housing in the spring of 2007.

Can you expand on what you mean by a "housing recovery?"

 

[bdc63]

The action of the housing stocks (joe, kbh, tol, bzh, dhi, hov, phm, ctx ) is telling us the Fed is finished raising rates. The market is also telling us that there will be a recovery in housing in the spring of 2007. The next major move in rates is DOWN. The Fed's work of the last 2 years raising rates has slowed the economy and tempered housing. The economic statistics will contine to deteriorate as well as the housing statistics but make no mistake about it, the recovery is coming in 2007. The Fed will begin lowering rates in the spring to generate growth. We will experience a growth rexession, which means GDP growth of 1-2%. We will NOT have a full blown recession...the FED will make sure of that. The stock market is a forecasting mechanism. The dawn is coming !!!

... and they all lived happily ever after.

 

[aquaticbiology]

i worry about this alot - hopefully your idea is not rose-colored glasses

i can see predicting the downturn (bound to happen), but how do you get a fed-induced recovery in spring 2007 - wishful thinking?

our "new" fed chairman (greenspan was a genious next to this guy) believes "the printing press was invented for a reason" and is printing money (creating black to offset the increasing red) like no tomorrow, and playing the currency markey like a country band fiddle to keep the dollar up

i won't say 'the dollar is toast - get out get out get out' but i will say to watch your assets

a worldwide depression affects all forms of currency and asset valuation, so pick something that holds its value, is small and transportable, and won't be destroyed by nuclear attack or glaciers

what is it that hold its value the best? lots of people have different ideas (and its even mentioned in the bible) and let me know when you find it

at least i can eat the fishies if it all goes pear shaped

and enjoy it while you have it!

 

[SHELLY]

what is it that hold its value the best? lots of people have different ideas (and its even mentioned in the BIBLE) and let me know when you find it

FOUND IT!!

 

[spinDrAtl]

On the bright side, 15 and 30 year fixed mortgage rates have improved over the last 2 weeks.

 

[Bob]

You could have asked the same question 2 yrs ago about $75/barrel oil?...What would your response have been?...My reply is I don't have a clue, but here we are...

Unfortunately we see now what $75 oil does to the economy. My question is, what is Washington doing? Minimum wage, health care, immigration, social security, energy issues are all being dealt with equally. Nothing substantive is being done, because the status quo benefits our leadership.

 

[Rita]

Unfortunately we see now what $75 oil does to the economy. My question is, what is Washington doing? Minimum wage, health care, immigration, social security, energy issues are all being dealt with equally. Nothing substantive is being done, because the status quo benefits our leadership.

.