WaterColor, FL ? a perspective of home sales through 2009

[Em]

WaterColor, FL ? a perspective of home sales through 2009

by Murray Balkcom, GRI, Realtor
www.dreamBIGproperties.com
The Premier Property Group


Located near the center of Scenic Hwy 30A in South Walton, the St. Joe development, WaterColor, has some interesting happenings in the way of sales. In the graphs below, we will look at sales of single family detached homes in all phases of WaterColor, which extends from Western Lake, across Scenic Hwy 395 to the Pt Washington State Forest.

As median sales price decreases? >>>CONTINUE READING<<<

 

[30ashopper]

 

[gmarc]

nice job murray. wow i'm stunned 1/2 the sales in watercolor were for less than 822k. that means of 50 homes sold for less than 822k. i can hardly remember 10 homes listed for less than 822k. it must mean many homes were sold well under list.as i said yesterday based on the huge uptick in sales once the inventory is cleared sales will plunge. it will be interesting to see if builders can compete with foreclosure prices and build profitably in the next 2 years.

 

[melscuba]

nice job murray. wow i'm stunned 1/2 the sales in watercolor were for less than 822k. that means of 50 homes sold for less than 822k. i can hardly remember 10 homes listed for less than 822k. it must mean many homes were sold well under list.as i said yesterday based on the huge uptick in sales once the inventory is cleared sales will plunge. it will be interesting to see if builders can compete with foreclosure prices and build profitably in the next 2 years.

I think for 2009 a lot of those home sales below 822k were the Phase IV homes. There were several sales in the 600-750k range in Phase II and III as well. What I'm finding frustrating is, even armed with that information, the sellers keep their prices much higher. It's as if they are wiping their brow and saying, "now that those are gone, we can sell our home for a higher price." With 400 Lis Pens filed in Walton County, WC homes in the mix, in the last 60 days, I don't see that happening. WC Association placed 12 liens on property owners on 12-31-2009. I'm not sure I understand Ray when you say, "once inventory has cleared, sales will plunge.". Are you speaking of foreclosed, short sale inventory? Please clarify.

 

[Em]

I think for 2009 a lot of those home sales below 822k were the Phase IV homes.

That is correct. Reports show of the 40 homes sold less than median price of $822,500, only 19 of those sales were located west of hwy 395 (phases 1, 2, or 3). If we look solely at phases 1, 2, and 3 (areas west of hwy 395), we see the median sales price for 2009 at $950,000.

WaterColor, Phase 4, located east of hwy 395, offers WaterColor style and amenities, but prices are much different. In 2009, homes sales in Ph 4, ranged from $419,000 to $519,000. There were 21 sales in Ph 4 during 2009, making up about 25% of the total home (detached) sales in WaterColor. Median sales price for those homes in Ph 4 was $445,000.

Reports show that there have been only 2 reported homes sold in ph 4, prior to 2009, and those closed in the last quarter of 2006.


(All data above comes from Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. )

 

[gmarc]

melscuba yes i'm talking about short sales or foreclosed property. i'm not an agent but i'd say just studying the mkt hard that 60-80% of all sales on 30-a are some type of distressed sale wether a short sale or reo. all of us who have vacationed on 30-a for 10 or more years all have the same story. prices rose so fast it became impossible to pay the crazy prices no matter if you could money wise or not. i recall looking at a home in 2004 for 520k. i hesitated and it sold from under me. 17 months later it was for sale at $1.2 mil. i almost cried. it created a frenzy that we all knew would blow up. now all of us who love the area and wanted to buy for so long are geting homes at 30-60% off the highs. as murrays graphs show this is causing a huge spike in sales from pent up demand among people who have been watching for 2 years for a bottom and think the bottom is in so they're jumping. once much of this inventory and future inventory is eaten away and passed from weak hands to strong hands the process will go back to 2000-2004 were houses will be built wether spec's or custom. so those strong hands will be content to hold for along time if need be. so builders will see this lack of supply and slowly raise prices.but since it takes along time to build a home sales will plunge from this past years frenzied face.what i'm alos seeing now is some banks are saying screw giving the house away and are actually long term renting it till the mkt turns up.

 

[Em]

Yes, some banks are holding the properties, but they are regulated and limited by the Feds regarding matters such as this. Maybe a banker can chime in with more details.

 

[homeboy]

Homes sales in Watercolor are pretty robust. Only problem is every time one sells another comes on the market. Condos and lots on the other hand aren't selling too well. I intend to buy a lot and build when the market hits bottom. However, I think that could be 4 to 5 years from now. Still way too many properties on the market and way to many shorts and foreclosures for things to stabilize. Prices seem to continue to fall although at a slower rate than over the last few years.

How did sales in Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside and Alys fare last year in terms of numbers?

 

[gmarc]

homeboy i've been tracking sales in watercolor for over a year. i'm talking phase 1,2 and 3. 14 months ago there were several homes for sale in phase 3 i think for 580-740k. 14 months later i still haven't really seen anything much cheaper. looking now i only see 2 homes listed under 900k in phases 1,2 or 3 and there both only 2 bedroom 2 bath.the high end seems to have fallen but the low end hasn't. the price per square foot never really fell under $250-$300 the last 14 months. maybe murray can weigh in on this

 

[1ToshFan]

Perspective appreciated

once much of this inventory and future inventory is eaten away and passed from weak hands to strong hands the process will go back to 2000-2004 were houses will be built wether spec's or custom. so those strong hands will be content to hold for along time if need be. so builders will see this lack of supply and slowly raise prices.but since it takes along time to build a home sales will plunge from this past years frenzied face.what i'm alos seeing now is some banks are saying screw giving the house away and are actually long term renting it till the mkt turns up.[/quot

Examining sales & listings in WaterColor [Phases 1-3], I would be curious to see any insight on current listing strategies. What I am trying to get at is how many of the homes currently "on the market" are placed out there "just to see if they can get a bite" rather than out of sheer need to liquidate the property. Before we bought our place, it was clear that some had reduced their price but were no where near giving their place away. The development is finite and this seems to be sustaining the market somewhat. To your point, even the bank-owned properties had dug their heels in for the time being.

I don't think there will ever come a time when prices in WaterColor will drop the way some hope/expect them to. With the interest in building among many of the posters to this discussion, has there been much fluctuation in lot prices/availability?