I've consistently found the ECWMF Site to have the best predictions. You can watch an animation of their Gulf predictions here. To see the latest, just press the Play button labeled Step (-> valid time)
I've been watching this storm since late last week on there and they've been dead on.
The center would have to come ashorel east of here in order to push the oil back out. A landfalling storm west of us, say Pensacola, would bring the storm surge here, and the oil with it.
