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Paulson: Housing slump likely near end

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Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Paulson: Housing slump likely near end
The Associated Press, Martin Crutsinger (AP Economics Writer)

WASHINGTON ? June 21, 2007 ? The major slump in the housing market is nearing an end and should not have a significant impact on the overall economy, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday.

Paulson refused to comment specifically on the market impact of troubles confronting two large Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested heavily in subprime mortgages ? loans made to borrowers with spotty credit histories.

?We have had a major housing correction in this country,? Paulson said in an interview with a small group of reporters at the Treasury Department. ?I do believe we are at or near the bottom.?

Paulson said he realized there would be losses along the way but said he believed those losses have been ?largely contained.?

?It doesn?t pose a risk to the economy overall,? he said.

Paulson?s comments echoed remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said in a June 5 speech that he believed the slump in housing would last longer than expected but that so far, ?we have not seen major spillovers from housing onto other sectors of the economy.?

The overall economy grew at a barely discernible 0.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, the worst showing in more than four years. But many analysts believe growth has picked up significantly in the spring to around 3 percent or better.

Paulson said the U.S. economy is being helped by strength in other parts of the world, noting that unemployment in Europe is at a 15-year low and global financial markets have large pools of money to invest.

But he cautioned that investors must remain alert to risks given that there has not been any serious financial turmoil for quite a while.

?We have had benign markets for some time. That means there is less discipline,? he said. ?We have to be vigilant about risk, but we need to recognize this is a strong global economy.?
 
I really wish Paulson didn't say this. :scratch: These gov't guys always "talk up their book". It's the Tsy Secretary's job to be the cheerleader but I thought Paulson would be more of a straight shooter. When he or Bernanke gets negative, the bottom will have been put in. ( of course the stock mkt will have already discounted the worst and housing stocks will be higher ).
 
I dont know when the bottom will be in. I dont know anybody who knows when the bottom will be in. I have asked some bankers and real estate people and others and the consensus is either mid or last qtr 08. I hope it is sooner but I dont know.
 
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