Maybe the sky is not falling after all?

[SHELLY]

Yo, Shelly...that quote referred to the SOWAL real estate market, not the national situation as a whole. How 'bout a prediction from the oracle him/her/it self? SOWAL? Real Estate? How much further will values fall from where we are today?

If one wants to buy a place because they like it here, the value is inconsequential. But I think the investment value of SoWal real estate is questionable going forward given the overbuilding that took place during the frenzy; the imbalance of area wages vs. affordability; and the issue of diminishing beach access.

 

[SHELLY]

DF,

This one's for you:

http://www.happyrenews.com/


.

 

[dunefrog]

If one wants to buy a place because they like it here, the value is inconsequential. But I think the investment value of SoWal real estate is questionable going forward given the overbuilding that took place during the frenzy; the imbalance of area wages vs. affordability; and the issue of diminishing beach access.

Right Shelly...Sowal is an over-built, socially-imbalanced, diminished place. Oh to have your foresight, wisdom, and...taste!

Over-built? I guess you mean that a place full of rare coastal dune lakes, pristine beaches, numerous state parks, and low-rise condos is over-built. Ah...I get it.

Imblanced wages/income? We all know how cheap properties are down in Boca Raton and West Palm (even post-crash). Two fer two, Shel.

Diminishing beach access? Oh sure, you must mean that prices actually go DOWN for property that IS PROTECTED from hordes of tourists leaving their trash all over the beach. Uh...huh.

Thanks for playing Shelly...really.

 

[fisher]

Over-built? I guess you mean that a place full of rare coastal dune lakes, pristine beaches, numerous state parks, and low-rise condos is over-built. Ah...I get it.

So, you don't think SoWal is overbuilt? Have you seen the amount of inventory sitting on the market?

It will take years and years before the real estate inventory situation rights itself.

Sure its a beautiful place, but so are lots and lots and lots and lots, etc of other places with lots and lots and lots and lots, etc of second home inventory sitting on the market.

 

[egrp]

dunefrog...obviously u have an agenda which is fine, but the reality of the situation dictates that RE values in SoWal and the nation as a whole will continue to decline for a number of reasons to name a few:

1. To much supply

2. Tighter lending

3. Owner vs rental mkt continues to be way out of whack

4. Property insurance

That is just reality...it will rebound...althought I think it will take years, this cycle of excess has a long way to go before it is corrected. I see nothing on the horizon to remedy the situation quickly.

 

[dunefrog]

So, you don't think SoWal is overbuilt? Have you seen the amount of inventory sitting on the market?

It will take years and years before the real estate inventory situation rights itself.

Sure its a beautiful place, but so are lots and lots and lots and lots, etc of other places with lots and lots and lots and lots, etc of second home inventory sitting on the market.

Ok. When Shelly spoke of "overbuilding," I was thinking overdeveloped. As in, concrete jungle, e.g. Destin or PCB. My mistake.

So overbuilt...hmm. Sorry I don't have enough data to make a final judgment on that one. But I don't think that high inventory necessarily means the area is overbuilt. Overbuilt means that there are NOT ENOUGH buyers for all the properties available right now. To determine this, I think you should be looking at VACANCY rates not inventory rates.

Maybe the problem with high inventory is that many of the listing prices are unrealistically high because some owners bought at the peak and don't want to sell at today's market price. For example, there are some units in my condominium listing for nearly $3 million. These people are not serious about selling. They are just making it available if someone were to come along (maybe a new oil baron). So this kind of thing distorts the inventory numbers. Most of these listed condos/homes are probably NOT VACANT. So beware statistics.

Might take a 2 years for the SoWal real estate market to get back on track to the 20 year norms. In my earlier posts, I acknowledge this. But this is not a problem if you hold the property for 10 years or more and you bought close to the bottom.

Finally, I disagree that there are "lots and lots and lots and lots" of other places like SoWal. This is my opinion. You are welcome to your own. I think most on this BB would agree with me that SoWal is sorta special.

 

[dunefrog]

dunefrog...obviously u have an agenda which is fine, but the reality of the situation dictates that RE values in SoWal and the nation as a whole will continue to decline for a number of reasons to name a few:

1. To much supply

2. Tighter lending

3. Owner vs rental mkt continues to be way out of whack

4. Property insurance

That is just reality...it will rebound...althought I think it will take years, this cycle of excess has a long way to go before it is corrected. I see nothing on the horizon to remedy the situation quickly.

Agreed that RE values may continue to decline slightly for the next year or so. And agreed that values will rebound. And agreed that it will take years before we fully correct to the 20 year mean. Agreed that it won't be remedied quickly. I have said all of this before.

Now listen closely to my "AGENDA." Buy when prices are low and everyone else is saying it's the end of the world. Hold your property for at least 10 years. You will probably get a good return on your investment.

 

[dunefrog]

DF,

This one's for you:

http://www.happyrenews.com/

.

Thanks for that. Back at you...

http://depressionrescue.com/
http://www.pristiq.com/major_depres...B7-B217-BDB196A2B973&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_ev=click

 

[Miss Critter]

I would be curious to see the percentage of recent sellers who leave the closing table with a check for proceeds equal to or exceeding their original investment.

 

[scooterbug44]

So overbuilt...hmm. Sorry I don't have enough data to make a final judgment on that one. But I don't think that high inventory necessarily means the area is overbuilt. Overbuilt means that there are NOT ENOUGH buyers for all the properties available right now. To determine this, I think you should be looking at VACANCY rates not inventory rates.

Maybe the problem with high inventory is that many of the listing prices are unrealistically high because some owners bought at the peak and don't want to sell at today's market price. For example, there are some units in my condominium listing for nearly $3 million. These people are not serious about selling. They are just making it available if someone were to come along (maybe a new oil baron). So this kind of thing distorts the inventory numbers. Most of these listed condos/homes are probably NOT VACANT. So beware statistics.

There are a lot of truly "vacant" properties in the area - some to the extent that they are shutting off the power and RE agents are refusing to show them (as a dark unAC house is not going to draw buyers, just liability and mold)!

Lots of vacant commercial space too.