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Ike

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You can ignore the CLP5 model. It is historical.
High pressure will be the key. "A big bubble of no trouble." Come on down, black flies.

And AEMN is a composite of a bunch of "alternate" GFS runs which use alternate input scenarios other than the actual position/direction of the storm and expected climate developments. They run a whole bunch of these and the projected paths end up literally all over the map. IMHO, the composite of these isn't terribly valuable. The "Operational" (i.e. believed to be realistic) run of GFS is "AVNO" on the SFWMD map. So, the only major model pointing at us right now is HWRF. It's relatively new, and so far this year, GFDL has been more accurate than it and the rest.
 
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IF Ike hits New Orleans just right...
IF Ike strengthens as predicted...
there will be loss of life. Too many people are financially drained from the Gustav evacuation to flee again. Even the indigent who were transported and housed for free are vowing not to leave again because the process was so trying on them. Trouble is brewing.

Exactly. We just heard from someone that my son has been in contact with at Loyola. They just returned today and said they don't even want to think about leaving again.
 
Flying into NOLA on Sunday. Should I worry?

Hey guys,

I'm flying into NOLA on Sunday and driving to Seacrest Beach. How concerned should I be about either delays or the possibility that MSY will be completely shut down? (They were closed for 5 days from Gustav). :blink:

Trying not to let IKE ruin my vacation plans.
 
Hey guys,

I'm flying into NOLA on Sunday and driving to Seacrest Beach. How concerned should I be about either delays or the possibility that MSY will be completely shut down? (They were closed for 5 days from Gustav). :blink:

Trying not to let IKE ruin my vacation plans.

It's definitely something to watch but right now most of the models are in agreement that it will be late Friday/Saturday landfall in Texas. That being said, it is at least 5 days away so I wouldn't count anything out. I would keep an eye on it but still plan on coming.
 
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