Time to Buy South Walton

[robertsondavies]

i think we're in the clear, Shelly has hopefully changed his mind now, after further reflection, that now is the early innings of being bullish again, unless the Federal Reserve changes course soon, which just aint happening. Sincerely wish good luck to all. There is not much vitreol on the board anymore, I think it is game over for the bears, of which I was one.
P.S. I don't particularly like Real Estate, as an asset class, but I have got to say that South Walton is the most undervalued spot in the country that I am aware of, and that's both subjective, and a guess about the future.

Good Luck to all.

 

[homeboy]

i think we're in the clear, Shelly has hopefully changed his mind now, after further reflection, that now is the early innings of being bullish again, unless the Federal Reserve changes course soon, which just aint happening. Sincerely wish good luck to all. There is not much vitreol on the board anymore, I think it is game over for the bears, of which I was one.
P.S. I don't particularly like Real Estate, as an asset class, but I have got to say that South Walton is the most undervalued spot in the country that I am aware of, and that's both subjective, and a guess about the future.

Good Luck to all.

I agree and disagree at the same time. I believe it depends on where you are looking. For instance, getting an almost brand new 2/2 condo at Redfish Village in the $150k range is a reasonable deal. Getting a nice house in a good location in Watercolor or Watersound in the range of $225 to 250 per square foot is a reasonable deal. However, paying over $325 or $350 per square foot as some people continue to do is not a great deal. Those types of prices will continue to fall for a while. Buying in Alys at $600 per square foot is a bad deal. When cost per square foot falls to below $400 in Alys, then you might be in the right range. Rosemary, like WC and WS, should be a good deal below $300 per square foot.

Lot prices in all those areas are still too high and will continue to fall.

 

[robertsondavies]

I agree and disagree at the same time. I believe it depends on where you are looking. For instance, getting an almost brand new 2/2 condo at Redfish Village in the $150k range is a reasonable deal. Getting a nice house in a good location in Watercolor or Watersound in the range of $225 to 250 per square foot is a reasonable deal. However, paying over $325 or $350 per square foot as some people continue to do is not a great deal. Those types of prices will continue to fall for a while. Buying in Alys at $600 per square foot is a bad deal. When cost per square foot falls to below $400 in Alys, then you might be in the right range. Rosemary, like WC and WS, should be a good deal below $300 per square foot.

Lot prices in all those areas are still too high and will continue to fall.

agreed completely. Alys should be around $400 a foot at best right now, depending of course on distance from the beach. Seaside should be a smidge higher than that, and Watercolor and Rosemary should both be around $275 a foot, depending again on finishes, and distance to beach/location within each 'makeplace'. Foreclosure pricing outside of these 'makeplaces' in Seagrove, Seacrest and similar are where the deals are that are reasonable, and offer the potential, IMHO, for significant appreciation over even the near term. Like $120 per sq foot type deals - THERE ARE VERY FEW OF THESE LEFT by the way. When they are gone, , then prices will start "stabilizing" ; I think these remaining $120per ft deals in places like Seagrove are going to be snapped up, not this spring, but in the next 60 days.

good luck

 

[scooterbug44]

I do think now is a great time for anyone (who can afford to do so) to be shopping for real estate. Prices are much more reasonable and actually affordable for people who live/work here.

But I don't think there is only a small window of opportunity - more foreclosures are going to be coming into the market and IMO prices will be slow to go up as the economy slowly recovers.

 

[robertsondavies]

I do think now is a great time for anyone (who can afford to do so) to be shopping for real estate. Prices are much more reasonable and actually affordable for people who live/work here.

But I don't think there is only a small window of opportunity - more foreclosures are going to be coming into the market and IMO prices will be slow to go up as the economy slowly recovers.

Sounds like the mirror image of what people told me in 2005, about why Real Estate in South Walton, even it it were to go down, could never take any real appreciable or quick dive in value, due to X Y and Z factors, we're all familiar with.
I simply don't think the REO inventory on 30A South Walton is nearly high enough(unlike other areas in Florida or even neighboring areas on the Emerald Coast) to suppress a rapid price bump,after a few weeks of intense buying interest that will quickly devour what remains. One of the bull**** lines that people threw out there in 2004 to assure folks that prices could not drop, was that South Walton's buyers were "Cash buyers", the wealthy folks from the list of feeder cities you are all familiar with that come to South Walton. That turned out to be a total exaggeration, much of the "Cash" was coming from Financiers (aka Securitization Trusts), and so it was a total exaggeration.. but when you peel back the onion now, you find that South Walton buyers, are the rich folks from those cities, and while they hit the panic button in 2008 like everyone else, particularly when their stock investments dropped 60%, now that those investments have come ROARING back, they're acting more like themselves again. wait and see.

No one really wants to retire in Atlanta

 

[scooterbug44]

We didn't run out of inventory during the boom, so I think we've got some wiggle room coming out of the bust. :roll:

Especially with a record year of foreclosures scheduled to add to the inventory.

I agree that Sowal is an attractive area to live (hence my current location), but I think you are overestimating the speed at which the local real estate market will return to the earlier frenzy AND at which the banks will sort out all the paperwork.

 

[melscuba]

Just some quick thoughts. Really.... who wants to even live in Atlanta, much less retire here? Now... don't bite my head off. I've lived here ten years and see more years in the future. We are raising our family here, etc., etc..... but really?? It's a fine place to live, but SoWal is a lifestyle. To be honest, I am grateful to live in Atlanta.... it led me to 30-A. There are 7 million of us here.... plenty of potential buyers for future retirement from this city alone. However, I think it is too difficult to predict where the real estate market is headed in the near future... for SoWal or anywhere else in the U.S.. SoWal will always be desirable, but that doesn't mean buyers are plentiful... or will be in the near future. I can speak from experience, it feels like the banks are checking your DNA for any genetic faults you may have. I have concerns over rising interest rates, continued tightened lending practices, etc. I feel certain SoWal will not be immune to the upcoming foreclosures.... it hasn't been so far. 2011 is proving to be an interesting ride. IMHO, and that's all it is, SoWal will continue to bounce along the bottom without a whole lot of change for the near term. That's not so bad. A steady rise from there will only be good for the community. Here's to looking up!

 

[robertsondavies]

We didn't run out of inventory during the boom, so I think we've got some wiggle room coming out of the bust. :roll:

Especially with a record year of foreclosures scheduled to add to the inventory.

I agree that Sowal is an attractive area to live (hence my current location), but I think you are overestimating the speed at which the local real estate market will return to the earlier frenzy AND at which the banks will sort out all the paperwork.

well, no where on earth has really ever run out of inventory, I never said South Walton will either. When Inventory however gets tight, when buyers overwhelm demand, you see rapid price appreciation, there have been periods of this in Hong Kong, to Naples FL, to California, to NYC, and even to a much lesser extent South Walton. I'm talking about REO Inventory. You're running out of it now, and the desirably priced REO inventory will be gone BEFORE spring.

I frankly hope you basically all agree there is NO hope for a nice bump up, and evaporation of REO supply. IT echoes the late 2004 early 2005 messages chains on this very board, except everyone was on the other side of the boat, so you're really giving me more confidence in my theorum here.

 

[robertsondavies]

Just some quick thoughts. Really.... who wants to even live in Atlanta, much less retire here?

when I wrote, no one wants to retire in Atlanta, I guess I should have went even one better, but you beat me to it. I don't like the fact that you forecast a steady rise for South Walton now, that scares me a bit, but I think you're rigth nonetheless, and your first observation above about ATLANTA, is priceless, on point, and why demand here will be going ONE WAY, in the coming 10 years - UP

Good luck all. Have fun buying up South Walton

 

[jeffreyb_30319]

Nice discussion. IMO, the RE market puts a floor in when a investor can buy something with an 8 or 10 cap rate renting to vacationers. In other words, it's a good investment. I don't think you will see that in Watercolor, the lowest priced homes are $800K and no way they are going to cash flow $80K, at least I don't think they will, but I am seeing deals every now and then along 30A that will pay for themselves in 15 years or less especially if you live here and and manage them yourself. Most are snapped up pretty quick with multiple offers, that tells me where the bottom is and what any bank REO's/ short sales will sell for in the future. When the rent pays the note, buyers will step in.