2011 to be record year for foreclosures

[scooterbug44]

Wanted to see what local/realtors thought of this and how it will affect Sowal.

I thought 2011 was supposed to be when we had big issues with commercial loans, but it seems like it's going to be another rough year for residential.

Over 1 million Americans seen losing homes in 2011 - Yahoo! News

NEW YORK ? The bleakest year in the foreclosure crisis has only just begun.
Lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and industry experts say more people will miss payments because of job losses and also loans that exceed the value of the homes they are living in.

One in every 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last year, a record 2.9 million of them. That's up 1.67 percent from 2009.

Foreclosures are expected to remain elevated throughout the year, pushing home prices down another 5 percent nationally before finally bottoming out.

The pain likely will be the most acute in states that have already suffered the worst. For the most part, it will be states that saw the biggest housing booms: Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California. They will be joined by states hit hardest by the economic downturn, including Michigan and Illinois.

More than half of the country's foreclosure activity came out of five states in 2010: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Together, these states recorded almost 1.5 million households receiving a filing, despite year-over-year decreases in California, Florida and Arizona.

One in every 17 Arizona households got a foreclosure filing last year, while one in 18 received a notice in Florida.

 

[robertsondavies]

Wanted to see what local/realtors thought of this and how it will affect Sowal.

I thought 2011 was supposed to be when we had big issues with commercial loans, but it seems like it's going to be another rough year for residential.

Over 1 million Americans seen losing homes in 2011 - Yahoo! News

NEW YORK ? The bleakest year in the foreclosure crisis has only just begun.
Lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and industry experts say more people will miss payments because of job losses and also loans that exceed the value of the homes they are living in.

One in every 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last year, a record 2.9 million of them. That's up 1.67 percent from 2009.

Foreclosures are expected to remain elevated throughout the year, pushing home prices down another 5 percent nationally before finally bottoming out.

The pain likely will be the most acute in states that have already suffered the worst. For the most part, it will be states that saw the biggest housing booms: Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California. They will be joined by states hit hardest by the economic downturn, including Michigan and Illinois.

More than half of the country's foreclosure activity came out of five states in 2010: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Together, these states recorded almost 1.5 million households receiving a filing, despite year-over-year decreases in California, Florida and Arizona.

One in every 17 Arizona households got a foreclosure filing last year, while one in 18 received a notice in Florida.

Many of the conditions are ripe for a rebound. Most news articles now, like the one you've linked to, are glass half empty and negative; In 2005, all news articles were positive, talked about flipping and making money, talked about the endless supply of boomers retiring, talked about the relative value of U.S. vs. European real estate, or within the country, compared areas like South Walton, to Naples or West Palm Beach and trumpted the valuation catch up that still will LIKELY occur, according to most trusted authorities, sources, etc etc. on real estate.

Now the horse is out of the barn, the articles are for the most part still very negative, particularly they were last year, all they can foresee is the "other shoe to drop."

I'm growing more optimistic by the day here really.
News covergae is typically a good contrarian indicator (think Newsweeks 1980 Cover "Death of Stocks" before stocks went up thousands of percentages in the ensuing couple of decades)

Whats a leading indicator, that may move up, when things still feel and seem bad? Stocks.

The one stock tied to South Walton? JOE.
Stock in St. Joe Company (JOE) is up 35 % in the last few weeks alone !!!!!!!!!!!

giddy up

 

[scooterbug44]

Well, that is why I wanted to hear from the peanut gallery and hear how this applied to our local markets - but this does not seem to be based on opinions or negativity, but pretty straight forward numbers.

Do you dispute any of their stats? I couldn't believe the 1/18 households in Florida getting a foreclosure notice - especially once you factor in that just being one year's stat and how many people completely own or rent their homes, but I also know that many people I know are dealing with this right now.

P.S. I don't think Joe's performance is a very good indicator - never been a fan of their long term thinking (or short term for that matter, but that's my personal opinion). They are "corporate" instead of long term/community based IMO. Not to mention I think the stock market is too high for current conditions and we are ripe for a dip.

 

[robertsondavies]

Well, that is why I wanted to hear from the peanut gallery and hear how this applied to our local markets - but this does not seem to be based on opinions or negativity, but pretty straight forward numbers.

Yes, the negative gospel is not even opinion anymore , once everyone is so negative (or positive as in 2004), it becomes fact based right? Those who argue against the overwhelming majority are doing so in futility, based on cold hard facts. I hope everyone agrees with you frankly.

Do you dispute any of their stats?

No I do not. Hey, do they have any forward looking stats?

I couldn't believe the 1/18 households in Florida getting a foreclosure notice - especially once you factor in that just being one year's stat and how many people completely own or rent their homes, but I also know that many people I know are dealing with this right now.

P.S. I don't think Joe's performance is a very good indicator

I don't "like" JOE per se either, but don't dislike them either. Coincidentally it is about to be under new management (Bruce Berkowitz, the Warren Buffet of the last two decades), repleat with all long term thinking.

- never been a fan of their long term thinking (or short term for that matter, but that's my personal opinion). They are "corporate" instead of long term/community based IMO. Not to mention I think the stock market is too high for current conditions and we are ripe for a dip.

I'm fine with not debating "corporate" vs. "community based" in the context of this thread about real estate values. Again, I hope everyone agrees with you now, that South Walton is going to hell in a hand basket in 2011, and further that that forecast is solely "fact" based.

 

[cooper]

I've never understood the anti-Joe sentiment so consistently expressed by many of the frequent posters on sowal.com. The watercolor and Watersound developments are phenomenal and both kept a tremendous amount of natural undeveloped space rather than cram lots into every available square foot. While rivercamps hasn't sold much it also is a terrific use of land. Joe has, in my opinion, exponentially increased the value of it's land holdings, as well as those who own land close to their developments for the very long term in sowal. I don't think any board of directors would have approved the airport project based on short term goals. 20 and 30 years from now, our area will continue to benefit from the "corporate" approach Joe has taken.

 

[robertsondavies]

I've never understood the anti-Joe sentiment so consistently expressed by many of the frequent posters on sowal.com. The watercolor and Watersound developments are phenomenal and both kept a tremendous amount of natural undeveloped space rather than cram lots into every available square foot. While rivercamps hasn't sold much it also is a terrific use of land. Joe has, in my opinion, exponentially increased the value of it's land holdings, as well as those who own land close to their developments for the very long term in sowal. I don't think any board of directors would have approved the airport project based on short term goals. 20 and 30 years from now, our area will continue to benefit from the "corporate" approach Joe has taken.

I couldn't agree more. You couldn't have a finer corporate citizen, to promote the sustainable long term development of the area, considering what any private land owner could have done with their 30A holdings over the last two decades. I don't get the whining about JOE either at all, but then again, we're probably just in the silent majority that also supports the expansion of usage of green vehicles like LSV's on 30A, by making a couple very very minor modifications.

 

[robertsondavies]

I've never understood the anti-Joe sentiment so consistently expressed by many of the frequent posters on sowal.com.

Careful now , 7 out of the 10 most frequent posters are about to rise up and now take sides against you on this issue (no matter the issue), to support their frequent poster buddy

The watercolor and Watersound developments are phenomenal and both kept a tremendous amount of natural undeveloped space rather than cram lots into every available square foot. While rivercamps hasn't sold much it also is a terrific use of land. Joe has, in my opinion, exponentially increased the value of it's land holdings, as well as those who own land close to their developments for the very long term in sowal. I don't think any board of directors would have approved the airport project based on short term goals. 20 and 30 years from now, our area will continue to benefit from the "corporate" approach Joe has taken.

tttttttttttt

 

[Miss Critter]

I think WaterColor was masterfully done, and WaterSound still offers the most expansive beach and massive dunes along 30A. Especially when you consider what Joe could've done with those properties, I believe they took the high road on development. Are they dense? Yes, but very well done.

 

[Smiling JOe]

JOE still has towns to build. Their holdings in Bay Co are impressive and with the future growth around the airport industry, Bay Co will have more than tourism dollars flowing in. All of the "forgotten coast" is also potential for resort creations by JOE. You can call it unwanted land if you want to, but many locals called the land where Seaside now sits as "unwanted" for years.

 

[30ashopper]

We have a wave of recasts coming, and a wave of pent up foreclosures that got put on hold last fall. I'd expect a record year for REOs. I think 2010 had something like 1.1 million foreclosures, while 2011 is supposed to have close to 2 million. A lot of prime borrowers are up at bat this year, I wonder how that will effect some of the more exclusive areas.