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Build versus Buy

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Excellent chart. Do you have a way to track the lis pen stock, or total inventory, which would be all of the properties for which a lis pen has been issued and there is no subsequent sales event or deed transfer? In my view the distressed inventory will peak ahead of a bottom in valuations.

I'm stuck scraping Walton County public records for this. Digging into those records to correlate lis pens to sales would be hard. The data is there, we just don't have the right access to it.
 
Theres no question theres a huge back log of foreclosures coming as talking with many friends i've counted at least 10 people that stopped making there monthly payments 1-2 years ago and they're still living in there homes. as somebody said since the banks are not being forced to market to market loans they'd almost rather a deliquent borrorower stay put instead of foreclosing for several reason. first reason is not hit to the blance sheet till they sell the property at a lose. the second is with someone living there its being taken care of versus sitting there unoccupied. but i still think 30-a is a little different than the rest of the nation. i'm just not seeing prices down that much on the 300k-800k homes in the past 10 months or so. maybe the top end has fallen more.whats been taking place the past 3 years is homes are moving from weak speculative hands to stronger hands who are less likely to default this with little building going on for 3 years now inventory will drop fast in the next 2 years and prices could start rising.
 
Theres no question theres a huge back log of foreclosures coming as talking with many friends i've counted at least 10 people that stopped making there monthly payments 1-2 years ago and they're still living in there homes. as somebody said since the banks are not being forced to market to market loans they'd almost rather a deliquent borrorower stay put instead of foreclosing for several reason. first reason is not hit to the blance sheet till they sell the property at a lose. the second is with someone living there its being taken care of versus sitting there unoccupied.


Great point...will be interesting to see if banks "outsource" property management in their commercial portfolio in this same way.
 
I agree with AtTheBeach

Your use of Watercolor was very appropriate. It makes me wonder if I'm missing something since it is so desirable but I really don't get the draw. Maybe we should spend some time renting there to appreciate it. We hear it is wonderful and our friends love it.

How about homes and land in Watersound?

We really like the west end of 30-A and have spent most of our time looking there. A diamond in the rough is what we are thinking.

All of 30A is a pearl, but the west end is as you say, a diamond waiting to be polished. Have you looked at Draper Lake Coastal Village and some of the other communities in Blue Mtn? There are some true deals on that end. We have built over 50 homes along 30A, would like to talk with you about building for you and your family.

As a builder I agree with BobbyJ, BUILD!!!

We are looking at the possibility to do a few 2000 sq ft spec homes on the west end in the $150ish a sq ft range because alot of folks coming from out of state want to buy a new house already built. I think the demand for that is going to be here by next spring.
What does BobbyJ think? Anyone who owns a lot might want to build on it with the idea of selling it.
 
Theres no question theres a huge back log of foreclosures coming as talking with many friends i've counted at least 10 people that stopped making there monthly payments 1-2 years ago and they're still living in there homes. as somebody said since the banks are not being forced to market to market loans they'd almost rather a deliquent borrorower stay put instead of foreclosing for several reason. first reason is not hit to the blance sheet till they sell the property at a lose. the second is with someone living there its being taken care of versus sitting there unoccupied. but i still think 30-a is a little different than the rest of the nation. i'm just not seeing prices down that much on the 300k-800k homes in the past 10 months or so. maybe the top end has fallen more.whats been taking place the past 3 years is homes are moving from weak speculative hands to stronger hands who are less likely to default this with little building going on for 3 years now inventory will drop fast in the next 2 years and prices could start rising.

Start rising after the two year mark?
Dang, two years for free... we should have just bought even when we couldn't have afforded it!
 
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What does BobbyJ think? Anyone who owns a lot might want to build on it with the idea of selling it.

Dead on. I have 4 offers sitting in front of me right now of cheaper lots and over 10 under contract with visions of building... Why? They can't find homes that fit their needs or the land and cost of construction are to enticing to not build.
 
Care to post some inventory vs. sales numbers to back that claim up?

My team is feel very blessed right now with a tremendous amount of inventory under contract.
I probably misspoke when I said the majority have and have sold. I would have to go back to my personal inventory and see if my sales and pendings are 2005 clients or not. I guess I just get a little excited about Real Estate. I love this business and stoked to see it changing. I am not sure I would feel comfortable giving you a break down of my personal transactions online but if you would give me your email I would gladly send a break down to you.
 
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