Build versus Buy

[30ashopper]

My team is feel very blessed right now with a tremendous amount of inventory under contract.
I probably misspoke when I said the majority have and have sold. I would have to go back to my personal inventory and see if my sales and pendings are 2005 clients or not. I guess I just get a little excited about Real Estate. I love this business and stoked to see it changing. I am not sure I would feel comfortable giving you a break down of my personal transactions online but if you would give me your email I would gladly send a break down to you.

Just dig into the mls and give us the following generic figures, for areas 14,15,16,17,18:

sept, oct: inventory, single family homes
sept, oct: single family sales

We can latch that onto the end of Josh's graphs.

Josh's Blog

As of August, inventory was still at all time highs. I did an off the cuff search of emerald coast online and found inventory between Destin and Inlet still very high, around 1900 properties. Sales are probably, what, 75 per month? That conflicts with your statement that all properties in the south walton area have cleared.

We don't have access to the mls, so folks like you are who we rely on to give us the straight scoop on current market figures. That's really all people want, and need, when considering purchasing or selling.

 

[Bobby J]

Where did I say all properties in South Walton have cleared?

 

[Bobby J]

Just dig into the mls and give us the following generic figures, for areas 14,15,16,17,18:

sept, oct: inventory, single family homes
sept, oct: single family sales

We can latch that onto the end of Josh's graphs.

Josh's Blog

As of August, inventory was still at all time highs. I did an off the cuff search of emerald coast online and found inventory between Destin and Inlet still very high, around 1900 properties. Sales are probably, what, 75 per month? That conflicts with your statement that all properties in the south walton area have cleared.

We don't have access to the mls, so folks like you are who we rely on to give us the straight scoop on current market figures. That's really all people want, and need, when considering purchasing or selling.

I have often said on these boards that Real Estate is very local in nature and a market can be different 2 miles away or less. To look at all the areas you requested would be misleading and a very confusing way to look at a market. I tend to be more specific when I look. I learn more and I can begin to see trends this way. Why would one look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time? That would not tell you anything about this type of market. If you are looking to buy you have to know or understand what the areas are individually and what real inventory is. I took a brief look at areas 17 and 18 which is the 30a area. Maybe on my earlier post I should have clarified what market area and price ranges I was talking about. As I randomly sometimes post something positive about the market maybe I should be more specific about what areas I am talking about. Some on the boards get really upset if something is posted positive about Real Estate. I apologize, it is my nature. I will say that north of 98 is struggling and will surely have a ways to go. I have noticed in areas that are still hurting price adjustments have not been made as radical as they have on the beaches. You would have better luck finding a great deal off of 30A then you would in Pt. Washington. Anyways, taking a brief more specific look at 17, 18 under $400,000 we find 90 listings. Of these 90, 38 are legit and something I would possibly show to someone. But…. This can even be broken down further by simple location. I am probably being liberal when I say 38. When I look at how many have sold under $400,000 since 09/01/2009 I find 28 sales. Hmmmmmmm …… I see a trend here. You may randomly see 90 listings but many of them are not even in the proper areas, short sales, mobile homes, etc. I can narrow the search down in seconds and once a client tell me what they like it gets narrowed down a lot more. Suddenly, 90 listings are down to 15. We watch these 15 for a few weeks and they are “gobbled up”. Are more coming? You bet. But you can also bet when you begin to break down each area the load of inventory is not as great as you think it is. In my ten years of doing this I have never had a buyer ask me to look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time. That would be pointless.

 

[LJ123]

I have often said on these boards that Real Estate is very local in nature and a market can be different 2 miles away or less. To look at all the areas you requested would be misleading and a very confusing way to look at a market. I tend to be more specific when I look. I learn more and I can begin to see trends this way. Why would one look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time? That would not tell you anything about this type of market. If you are looking to buy you have to know or understand what the areas are individually and what real inventory is. I took a brief look at areas 17 and 18 which is the 30a area. Maybe on my earlier post I should have clarified what market area and price ranges I was talking about. As I randomly sometimes post something positive about the market maybe I should be more specific about what areas I am talking about. Some on the boards get really upset if something is posted positive about Real Estate. I apologize, it is my nature. I will say that north of 98 is struggling and will surely have a ways to go. I have noticed in areas that are still hurting price adjustments have not been made as radical as they have on the beaches. You would have better luck finding a great deal off of 30A then you would in Pt. Washington. Anyways, taking a brief more specific look at 17, 18 under $400,000 we find 90 listings. Of these 90, 38 are legit and something I would possibly show to someone. But?. This can even be broken down further by simple location. I am probably being liberal when I say 38. When I look at how many have sold under $400,000 since 09/01/2009 I find 28 sales. Hmmmmmmm ?? I see a trend here. You may randomly see 90 listings but many of them are not even in the proper areas, short sales, mobile homes, etc. I can narrow the search down in seconds and once a client tell me what they like it gets narrowed down a lot more. Suddenly, 90 listings are down to 15. We watch these 15 for a few weeks and they are ?gobbled up?. Are more coming? You bet. But you can also bet when you begin to break down each area the load of inventory is not as great as you think it is. In my ten years of doing this I have never had a buyer ask me to look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time. That would be pointless.

BobbyJ, you know your stuff. Please check your PM

 

[Tom Curlin]

All of 30A is a pearl, but the west end is as you say, a diamond waiting to be polished. Have you looked at Draper Lake Coastal Village and some of the other communities in Blue Mtn? There are some true deals on that end. We have built over 50 homes along 30A, would like to talk with you about building for you and your family.

As a builder I agree with BobbyJ, BUILD!!!

We are looking at the possibility to do a few 2000 sq ft spec homes on the west end in the $150ish a sq ft range because alot of folks coming from out of state want to buy a new house already built. I think the demand for that is going to be here by next spring.
What does BobbyJ think? Anyone who owns a lot might want to build on it with the idea of selling it.

It seems to me that this math is further to my earlier assertions. As long as builders can build spec homes well below the comps for existing homes the banks will be forced to keep lowering their asks to find a bid, assuming there is sufficient raw land inventory.

 

[30ashopper]

I have often said on these boards that Real Estate is very local in nature and a market can be different 2 miles away or less. To look at all the areas you requested would be misleading and a very confusing way to look at a market. I tend to be more specific when I look. I learn more and I can begin to see trends this way. Why would one look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time? That would not tell you anything about this type of market. If you are looking to buy you have to know or understand what the areas are individually and what real inventory is. I took a brief look at areas 17 and 18 which is the 30a area. Maybe on my earlier post I should have clarified what market area and price ranges I was talking about. As I randomly sometimes post something positive about the market maybe I should be more specific about what areas I am talking about. Some on the boards get really upset if something is posted positive about Real Estate. I apologize, it is my nature. I will say that north of 98 is struggling and will surely have a ways to go. I have noticed in areas that are still hurting price adjustments have not been made as radical as they have on the beaches. You would have better luck finding a great deal off of 30A then you would in Pt. Washington. Anyways, taking a brief more specific look at 17, 18 under $400,000 we find 90 listings. Of these 90, 38 are legit and something I would possibly show to someone. But?. This can even be broken down further by simple location. I am probably being liberal when I say 38. When I look at how many have sold under $400,000 since 09/01/2009 I find 28 sales. Hmmmmmmm ?? I see a trend here. You may randomly see 90 listings but many of them are not even in the proper areas, short sales, mobile homes, etc. I can narrow the search down in seconds and once a client tell me what they like it gets narrowed down a lot more. Suddenly, 90 listings are down to 15. We watch these 15 for a few weeks and they are ?gobbled up?. Are more coming? You bet. But you can also bet when you begin to break down each area the load of inventory is not as great as you think it is. In my ten years of doing this I have never had a buyer ask me to look at areas 14,15,16,17,18 at one time. That would be pointless.

Limiting your search to 400K or less filters out all the over priced property. I guess we got off track somehow. I count almost 1000 properties for sale, under 900K, in the SoWal area.

 

[30ashopper]

Where did I say all properties in South Walton have cleared?

Right here -

Convince some of your clients who are stuck in 2005 to lower their prices? There's plenty of inventory out there to work with.

The majority have and have sold.

 

[Bobby J]

Limiting your search to 400K or less filters out all the over priced property. I guess we got off track somehow. I count almost 1000 properties for sale, under 900K, in the SoWal area.

Too random of a look. A good way to start and show lots of inventory still on the market but unless you dig in really has no meaning to a specific buyer.

 

[Bobby J]

That conflicts with your statement that all properties in the south walton area have cleared.

I never said this. You are twisting words. I was speaking specifically of my own personal buyer portfolio from 2005. "The majority have and those that have have sold." How do you turn that statement into me saying all properties have cleared? This would mean I sold all the property in 2005 in this area. I really think we are have a communication break down.

If you would like to come by my office and go over my 2005 buyers you are more then welcome. I would also like to be clear that these 2005 buyers that have sold did not walk away with checks or a big smile on their faces.

 

[30ashopper]

I never said this. You are twisting words. I was speaking specifically of my own personal buyer portfolio from 2005. "The majority have and those that have have sold." How do you turn that statement into me saying all properties have cleared? This would mean I sold all the property in 2005 in this area. I really think we are have a communication break down.

If you would like to come by my office and go over my 2005 buyers you are more then welcome. I would also like to be clear that these 2005 buyers that have sold did not walk away with checks or a big smile on their faces.

I'm not twisting anybody's words I just think there was a misunderstanding. Generally I think we agree, there is a lot of inventory, but little of it is saleable due to price. It will take time for the whole thing to unwind, during which a steady stream of reo's will continue to flow into the market.