Calling The Bottom

[Bobby J]

Why don't you call Barry Stafford "CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors"...according to an article in the FWB Mullet Wrapper he sees all and knows all.

-------------------------
"Even during the boom days of 2004 and 2005, Barry Stafford said Northwest Florida Realtors knew the rising wave of home sales would crest sooner or later.

"We all knew it was an anomaly, and it was terrifying to us," recalled Stafford, who is CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. "We knew what goes up must come down."
------------------------

Then again, if what he says is true (i.e., in '04 to '05 we ALL knew prices would drop) I think the Realtors have some serious credibility issues to iron out.

{Personally, I this this guy is full of crap...just another feckless Rah-Rah RE fop} :roll:

What I find really pathetic is the FAR's desperate attempts to restart the RE frenzy again--good luck with that.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/home_8857___article.html/percent_market.html

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

 

[30ashopper]

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

Inland areas seem to have corrected much earlier than those near the coast. So I guess it depends on where you're looking. Down on 30-A I really have not seen much of a correction yet. People still seem to be holding on for dear life! You're in RE Bobby, what are you seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A that has you convinced we're nearing a bottom?

 

[YoungFT]

Bottom is Mar 2010 - Sep 2010?

I'm still hoping to see signs for a bottom late this year / early next year but I'm seeing some interesting data points to suggest that may be too optimistic.

See the attached for context and a link to a very interesting internal Bank of America document that has some economic projections buried deep.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODJkN2Q3NTY0MjAwYjJlNTY0NTJmMWEzZTI1OGZjZTg=

If you download the .pdf file that is linked and look at page 20, you will find BofA's "base case" projection for housing price appreciation. The chart appears to indicate that housing prices will continue to decline through March 2010 - September 2010 in the "base case". Their "extreme stress" case shows housing prices dropping through 2012.

Clearly, this is an overall view of the market and all real estate markets are "local", but given that this is an internal document of the largest home financing company in America, you have to give this some weight.

 

[Bobby J]

Inland areas seem to have corrected much earlier than those near the coast. So I guess it depends on where you're looking. Down on 30-A I really have not seen much of a correction yet. People still seem to be holding on for dear life! You're in RE Bobby, what are you seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A that has you convinced we're nearing a bottom?

I said we are closer to the bottom then the top. What am I seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A? I look at the whole market all day, everyday. I see radical adjustments daily across the board. The price change area in the hot sheets is the most active area on the MLS. Not sure where the bottom is but I do feel we are closer to the bottom then the top. I also feel the inland areas (Freeport) have not made the corrections the beaches have made.

 

[Joe Mammy]

I said we are closer to the bottom then the top. What am I seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A? I look at the whole market all day, everyday. I see radical adjustments daily across the board. The price change area in the hot sheets is the most active area on the MLS. Not sure where the bottom is but I do feel we are closer to the bottom then the top. I also feel the inland areas (Freeport) have not made the corrections the beaches have made.

I jumpstart my heart everyday with two cups of Joe and the MLS HOTSHEETS- new listings and the price changes are always the most interesting. Posted on my site every biz day by 7:00am for Destin- no registration required.

 

[flyforfun]

I'm still hoping to see signs for a bottom late this year / early next year but I'm seeing some interesting data points to suggest that may be too optimistic.

See the attached for context and a link to a very interesting internal Bank of America document that has some economic projections buried deep.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODJkN2Q3NTY0MjAwYjJlNTY0NTJmMWEzZTI1OGZjZTg=

If you download the .pdf file that is linked and look at page 20, you will find BofA's "base case" projection for housing price appreciation. The chart appears to indicate that housing prices will continue to decline through March 2010 - September 2010 in the "base case". Their "extreme stress" case shows housing prices dropping through 2012.

Clearly, this is an overall view of the market and all real estate markets are "local", but given that this is an internal document of the largest home financing company in America, you have to give this some weight.

YoungFT, I think its important to note that page 20's graphs are addressing subprime and ALT-A loans. Realestate is local, and I don't see this projecting being accurate for our market.

 

[TheSheep]

Then again, if what he says is true (i.e., in '04 to '05 we ALL knew prices would drop) I think the Realtors have some serious credibility issues to iron out.

{Personally, I this this guy is full of crap...just another feckless Rah-Rah RE fop} :roll:

What I find really pathetic is the FAR's desperate attempts to restart the RE frenzy again--good luck with that.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/home_8857___article.html/percent_market.html

Realtors have credibility issues? No more than generalizing attorneys, or Catholic priests or posters named Shelly?

And what do you expect from FAR? Gloom-doom? Why not slap the spastic kid on the block around and claim the lightweight title? About as productive and amusing.

Why read them at all (FAR)? Their data is like closed sourced software, credible not. Luke and Laura broke up too.

 

[TheSheep]

YoungFT, I think its important to note that page 20's graphs are addressing subprime and ALT-A loans. Realestate is local, and I don't see this projecting being accurate for our market.

Local, in cases, neighborhood strategic. We certainly do not live in any typical housing market.

 

[TheSheep]

Clearly, this is an overall view of the market and all real estate markets are "local", but given that this is an internal document of the largest home financing company in America, you have to give this some weight.

I don't see why.

This data follows no herding mentality that can be focused locally. Want to know what is happening in your neighborhood, look at your corral. Homes priced 20% or more over the few that have sold? Follow the herd. Absorption rates reflect what? Nothing unless the properties are properly priced. Properly priced? Well kept? Look at those, look nowhere else.

When the herd runs wild, as they did a few years back, (e)we(s) get lost in finding their way back to the pendulum ever swinging, to the to and now the fro.

 

[Bobby J]

I don't see why.

This data follows no herding mentality that can be focused locally. Want to know what is happening in your neighborhood, look at your corral. Homes priced 20% or more over the few that have sold? Follow the herd. Absorption rates reflect what? Nothing unless the properties are properly priced. Properly priced? Well kept? Look at those, look nowhere else.

When the herd runs wild, as they did a few years back, (e)we(s) get lost in finding their way back to the pendulum ever swinging, to the to and now the fro.

Dear Sheep,

Ewe up late, hard to understand...