30ashopper
SoWal Insider
Rubio's advisor wrote a pretty spot-on analysis of the race, that in many ways parallels what Abe Dyk (Meek's advisor) had to say recently --
Rubio camp releases ?State of the race? memo slamming Crist | The Daily Caller - Breaking News, Opinion, Research, and Entertainment
Right now, Crist is getting by on name recognition. He is not particularly moderate, he is just responsive to the periodic huge outcry from the electorate. In a Republican party that has grown more and more ideologically radical, it's seen as a weakness to follow the will of the people over the will of the party. As voters learn more about Meek and Rubio, many of them are going to swing away from Crist -- particularly Democrats, who will find that Meek is a very appealing candidate. It will be a good race, but ultimately Rubio is too far right, and Crist is going to take more votes from his column than from Meek's. Democratic turnout will be the key.
As election day nears, people will decide if their vote for Crist is a throw away. The polling over the coming omnths will inflate the number of the guy who is losing the race, but is still publically being supported. In past elections, this can represent upwards of 50% of their votes. In the ends, Dems saying they'll voting for Crist will vote for Meek if they think Meek has a shot, and Reps saying they'll vote for Crist will check Rubio.
It comes down to the independents, which I think are more likley to Vote for Rubio once they learn a little bit more about Meeks past voting record.