Current inventory and sales forecast - December 2007

[Bobby J]

Bobby, I work with appraisers often, and never have a problem with helping them find real comps which would justify a selling price. Just curious if this particular appraiser welcomed the idea of looking at comps you presented?

No. I was the listing agent. The bank did not want selling agent to have anything to do with selling agent referring appraiser. BTW, the buyer put 50% down. Hmmmmm.......

 

[PalmBeach]

Their have been 4 sales in the Grove this year. They are all in the $700's. The last one was 6/13/2007. They are all viable comps. Average per sq. foot is $428.00.

Two closed sales in Cassine this year in the MLS. $270/SF and $296/SF. I do not know how they compare to your sale. But the appraiser is required by USPAP to use the best, closest, and most comparable sales to determine market value. NOT the best sales to support your contract price. Going to the Grove for comps would only be acceptable if they were the best, closest, and most comparable sales in the area. To be clear, I am not defending the appraiser. There are alot of really bad appraisers out there. I see awful appraisals every day. I report the worst appriasers to the state. That is the only way to solve the problem. BTW, I am an appraiser, but I only appraise commercal property.

 

[Bobby J]

Two closed sales in Cassine this year in the MLS. $270/SF and $296/SF. I do not know how they compare to your sale. But the appraiser is required by USPAP to use the best, closest, and most comparable sales to determine market value. NOT the best sales to support your contract price. Going to the Grove for comps would only be acceptable if they were the best, closest, and most comparable sales in the area. To be clear, I am not defending the appraiser. There are alot of really bad appraisers out there. I see awful appraisals every day. I report the worst appriasers to the state. That is the only way to solve the problem. BTW, I am an appraiser, but I only appraise commercal property.

I am actually the $296 closing. He only had one in Cassine to use. He was forced to leave the community and search for comps. The other comp is one level and not on the same level as my listing. I could see the problem if he was $50,000+ under but $22,000? I just find it very odd. Anyway, buyer bought it and she has now created another higher comp. BTW, no hard feelings about appraisers. My comment was from an appraiser. In conclusion, the problem with most appraisals in a down market is they go back too far. I tell my sellers if they want to find out what something will sell for go back 3 months. If nothing has sold in three months, it is probably too high. Folks really get upset about that. I had one guy tell me I was just trying to "sell It"! Imagine that, just trying to sell it! Most folks that will remove the emotion and listen to their agent will sell their property. I am struggling with this concept with some of my own property. I know what will sell it but can not stomach the drop. I keep thinking it will come back to the "value" I want. Not going to happen. I think our market will be back sooner then we realize but this does not mean we will get back what we paid in certain areas. I think that could be 10 years plus. Seven out of ten clients I sit down with say they will wait until it comes back..... What does that mean? Comes back to what you paid? Comes back to transactions? If you paid too much, it will probably be years before we see the same values of properties purchased in late 2004-2005. You may want a back up plan. I know I am trying to get one.

On a positive note, the sooner everyone grasp the reality of this the faster the market will begin the turn.

 

[pete23]

I have been in the Banking business for 25 years and have never collected a loan from an appraiser. They always have a statement in their appraisal that their liability is limited to the fee they are paid. An appraisal is simply a document for the file to support a loan.

 

[livingiSoWal]

I do not look for my appraisals to predict the future. We are simply asking if the contract in their hand can be supported by similar sales.

agreed Bobby J. I work next to two appraisers every day and almost every day they tell me, "We are simply reporters of fact." That to me means they are giving a value of todays market condition not next weeks.

 

[SHELLY]

Most folks that will remove the emotion and listen to their agent will sell their property. I am struggling with this concept with some of my own property. I know what will sell it but can not stomach the drop. I keep thinking it will come back to the "value" I want. Not going to happen. I think our market will be back sooner then we realize but this does not mean we will get back what we paid in certain areas. I think that could be 10 years plus. Seven out of ten clients I sit down with say they will wait until it comes back..... What does that mean? Comes back to what you paid? Comes back to transactions? If you paid too much, it will probably be years before we see the same values of properties purchased in late 2004-2005.

This is the same mindset in the aftermath of the tech-wreck. There are folks who are still holding $100+ a copy shares of JDS Uniphase in their portfolios and rode it down to $2. With an 8-1 reverse split last year, those shares are worth about $1.75 today--it's been 7 years and they're still waiting for it to go back up to $100. (But carrying costs are minute)

I finally convinced a bud to jettison his dot.com era QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and take the tax write-off against his gains this year--you'd thought I'd told him to put his dog to sleep.

.

 

[Busta Hustle]

maybe we can all have our next comps from alys...bout $1220 a foot sounds good.

 

[Pirate]

maybe we can all have our next comps from alys...bout $1220 a foot sounds good.

Not enough sales in the past 12 months to make an appraisal with.

 

[Busta Hustle]

now here we are just a short month later and the latest listing in Cassine is $499k...looks pretty comparable to the $570K sale

 

[Bobby J]

now here we are just a short month later and the latest listing in Cassine is $499k...looks pretty comparable to the $570K sale

Seller wants to sell it. They do not want to drag it out. This Cassine home is what I call an A plus listing that will be gone leaving many pent up buyers wondering where their deal is when the so called bottom bell rings. I guess when you buy right you can compete with foreclosures and short sales. Not that I have been one to buy right. I seem to buy high and sell low on my own stuff!!!!!