I agree with Murray that there is no cause for alarm. Numbers are definitely something to keep our eye on but they don't tell the story alone. There are many factors that skew the numbers to look one way or another.
IMHO, interest in the real estate market is definitely picking up. When I look at comps or sales, I always look at the "contract" date, not only the closing date. To me, the day the contract is signed indicates the time of demand. Closing can be many months later and in this volatile market things can change quickly. So that significant drop we are seeing in SFH's in January and February are people who probably went to contract around the holidays when few people are looking for investment real estate. This is very typical.
Regarding price drops or increases. The thing I look at is something called the "hotsheet" which is a 7 days summary. I look at price changes which show red (price drop) or green (price increase). The price changes are still overwhelmingly red or dropping. Below is a link to the hotsheet for the last 7 days.
http://www.uniquepanhandleproperties.com/hotsheet.pdf
You will note that there were 3 increases (except for a couple of clear errors in data input). The changes are still overwhelmingly decreases but a while back there were no increases at all. I'm seeing a couple of increases now and then so I am cautiously optimistic for now.
Again IMHO, 30aShopper is right on the money with impending foreclosures. Many analysts believe that there will be a glut of them this year. There are numerous screw ups by the banks however and numerous defenses to foreclosure if people don't just roll over so the future is definitely uncertain and heavily dependent on our legislators. Florida is a judicial foreclosure state and as SWGB mentions if they remove our due process, it will be a travesty.
Lastly to address Relax's comment about the great losses that people are taking. He/She is correct. Homes are being sold at great losses and as sad as it is, buyer's should not be afraid to make lowball offers. The bottom line is not the list price, it's the recent sales. Many people see a list price and they don't care how low it is, if they can't get the seller down 40%, they aren't happy. This is fine and certainly worth a shot but do your homework and don't let your ego or the need to win get in the way. If the price is listed 20% below recent sales and you can negotiate down another 20%, you've got a hell of a deal.
There is a lot of public information out there to help determine the motivations of a seller. "motivated" on the listing doesn't mean that they are "desperate". Unfortunately, there are many desperate sellers out there and the key is knowing who is and who isn't if you want the deal of a lifetime. They are out there. I am closing one of them in a few hours. Negotiations went over weeks and the seller never thought they'd take the final agreed upon price but when push came to shove, it was clear that if he didn't, he might not sell it for a couple of years or more. So it's all about the situation - finding the motivation, knowing what it's really worth with prices continuing to decline and negotiating an offer that they can't refuse - not because it's so good but because the market is so bad. Today more than ever, agressive negotiation pays off.
Please understand that it doesn't make me happy when sellers lose a boatload of money. It's actually quite sad but I represent the buyer and they come to me to provide a service - which is to help them make the best investment possible. The reality is the reality and if my buyer doesn't buy it, the seller might lose it to the bank anyway. For those that can hold out, you are marketing your home at the wrong time but ethically I can't let my buyer pay more than it's worth or blow smoke telling them that the value will increase in 6 months. Most likely it won't and we need to anticipate that and offer accordingly.
Right now, we have as many interested buyers as we had in 2004 and I suspect it's the same with other realtors. Whether they buy and the numbers reflect the interest is another thing because as we all painfully know, anything can happen tomorrow. There are people still out there with money. I'm being told that many want to move money out of the banks and into hard assets. They are concerned that the banks will go belly up and they will lose their money if they don't move it. Just my 2 cents.
2007 was the second worst year for sales in the last, what, decade or more? If we are 5% below that, it signals possible trouble. That's all I'm saying. Not to mention, in 2007 we were trending up, this year we are trending down. Definitely need to keep an eye on things. Everything is in flux right now.
