ECAR data from Jan 99 to Sept 08

[traderx]

I think it would be interesting to see the average and median sales price of raw lots. I believe this info would give you the best indication of how far prices of SFH's have to go.

I agree. Is this info available?

So long as vacant land is readily available for purchase at a huge discount, I don't see anything supporting home values. Many sellers I would guess will just sit on their homes, enjoy the rental income stream and go to SoWal for a couple of weeks per year but for motivated sellers it seems values have a long ways to fall.

SoWal can be a tricky market to figure out due to the high number of investment property owners but on the commercial side, it is not unusual during a downturn for values to fall well below replacement cost. Ask Sam Zell.

I am moving to SoWal late this year and will be renting unless there is a surprise in the raw lot sales price trends.

 

[AAbsolute]

I agree. Is this info available?

So long as vacant land is readily available for purchase at a huge discount, I don't see anything supporting home values. Many sellers I would guess will just sit on their homes, enjoy the rental income stream and go to SoWal for a couple of weeks per year but for motivated sellers it seems values have a long ways to fall.

SoWal can be a tricky market to figure out due to the high number of investment property owners but on the commercial side, it is not unusual during a downturn for values to fall well below replacement cost. Ask Sam Zell.

I am moving to SoWal late this year and will be renting unless there is a surprise in the raw lot sales price trends.

What do you know about Sam Zell? Sounds like he's doin' pretty well to me.

 

[traderx]

What do you know about Sam Zell? Sounds like he's doin' pretty well to me.

My background is in commercial/corporate real estate.

Zell is the master bottom fisher. He has been frequently used as proof that the bottom has been put in.

 

[AAbsolute]

My background is in commercial/corporate real estate.

Zell is the master bottom fisher. He has been frequently used as proof that the bottom has been put in.

I've become a cynic (and an "egg"noraemus according to Cracker Barrel). I assumed your comment was a dig at Sam Zell. I need to watch an Arrested Development Commercial free marathon to replenish my virtue.

A friend of mine, who is much smarter than, I is the CEO for a company owned by Zell, et al. It sounds so far like Zell is my kind of guy. Peace.

 

[Smiling JOe]

This could easily overshoot 99, don't you think?

Not at all. There is no way in hell that I think that half of the single family home sales in South Walton and Destin, excluding Pt Washington, will be less than $210,000. Not even for Pt Washington alone, would that be the case, unless there isn't enough sample data. eg- having only one or two sales in a given month, one of which is less than $210,000.

 

[30ashopper]

Not at all. There is no way in hell that I think that half of the single family home sales in South Walton and Destin, excluding Pt Washington, will be less than $210,000. Not even for Pt Washington alone, would that be the case, unless there isn't enough sample data. eg- having only one or two sales in a given month, one of which is less than $210,000.

I agree actually, overshooting 99 - 01 is not likely. Landing there is however. About the only good news I can pull out of these graphs is that peak to trough, the area has already experienced a declined 40% off the peak. I believe that's higher than the national average.

 

[AAbsolute]

I agree actually, overshooting 99 - 01 is not likely. Landing there is however. About the only good news I can pull out of these graphs is that peak to trough, the area has already experienced a declined 40% off the peak. I believe that's higher than the national average.

It's odd, but true, that it's encouraging that values have declined as much as they have.

 

[JoshMclean]

Sorry, I completely missed this thread. 30a I'll send you the same list for land right now.

 

[JoshMclean]

Just pm'd you the information for lots.

 

[traderx]

Just pm'd you the information for lots.

Josh, can you post the lot data?