• Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.

GDP growth cools in 3rd quarter

New posts

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
What's not clear is whether the recovery can continue after government supports are gone.

If consumers clam up, the economy could tip back into recession. President Barack Obama recently cautioned that the economy could suffer a "double dip" downturn.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, says he doesn't think that will happen. But last week the Fed chief did warn the recovery faces "important headwinds," such as tight credit and a weak job market that will make consumers cautious in their spending.

Those factors "likely will prevent the expansion from being as robust as we would hope," Bernanke said.

Tuesday's report showed that overall consumer spending ? a major shaper of national economic activity ? grew at a pace of 2.9 percent last quarter. That was down from a 3.4 percent growth rate first estimated, but still marked the best showing since early 2007.

On the business side, companies cut back spending on commercial construction ? a weak spot in the economy ? at 15.1 percent annualized pace. That was deeper than the 9 percent annualized cut back first estimated.

Businesses also trimmed stockpiles of goods by $133.4 billion last quarter, slightly more than initially estimated.

And the nation's trade deficit ended up shaving 0.83 percentage point off GDP last quarter, more than first thought.

Unlike past rebounds that were driven by the spending of everyday Americans, this one appears to hinge on spending by businesses, foreigners and ? until it runs out ? the government.

In an encouraging note on that front, businesses after-tax profits grew at a 13.4 percent pace last quarter, up from a 0.9 percent pace in the prior period, Tuesday's report showed.

In 1980, businesses led an economic recovery. It quickly fizzled, and the economy fell into a severe recession in 1981 and 1982. The unemployment rate climbed to 10.8 percent, the post-World War II high.

The government makes three estimates of economic activity for any given quarter. Each is based on more complete data. Tuesday's was the second reading of the third-quarter GDP data.

The AP has a nice run down of the state of things.

Economy's rebound not as strong as first thought - Yahoo! News

Also found this quote by Bernanke today on Bloomberg rather comical:

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after a Nov. 16 speech in New York that it?s ?not obvious? that asset prices in the U.S. are out of line with underlying values after a 64 percent jump in the Standard & Poor?s 500 Index from its March low.

Does that sound familiar to anyone? :biggrin:

Pimco’s Gross Increases Government Debt to Most in Five Years - Bloomberg.com
 
The gov't has the same problem the auto co's got into with their rebates. Sales were good while the rebate was there but when removed people went to other rebate supported vehicle or put off buying. Cash for Clunkers only moved sales forward to artificially inflate numbers as does the home rebate. Nothing has changed in the underlying economy which will get worse as uncertainty as to future tax situations causes businesses to put off hiring. The only growth industry seems to be gov't. jobs which produce zip.
 
New posts


Sign Up for SoWal Newsletter












                               
Back
Top