Housing starts fall 31%

[30ashopper]

Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000. This is 6.3 percent (?12.0%) below the revised August estimate of 872,000 and is 31.1 percent (?8.3%) below the revised September 2007 rate of 1,185,000.

http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

While this news is bad short term for builders (sorry AAbsolute) it's actually good news for the real estate industry. With sales increasing slightly as prices continue to fall, and with falling starts, expect inventory to fall at a more pronounced rate in the coming months.

 

[30ashopper]

Graphed out by "the mess that greenspan made" blog - at some point, this has to bottom, but I don't see it yet.

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/10/housing-starts-plunge.html

 

[JoshMclean]

Good information. Would love to see local numbers on this.

 

[Just_In_Thyme]

Is this really a surprise? I am shocked the number wasn't higher.

 

[Kurt]

Thanks for posting all the graphs. It looks like this one can't go much lower. I suppose it will bounce along the bottom for awhile and at some point rise after inventory is flushed a bit and credit is straightened out..

 

[30ashopper]

Is this really a surprise? I am shocked the number wasn't higher.

You know, I still see construction going on all along old 98 and 30A. I can't explain it.

 

[AAbsolute]

http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

While this news is bad short term for builders (sorry AAbsolute) it's actually good news for the real estate industry. With sales increasing slightly as prices continue to fall, and with falling starts, expect inventory to fall at a more pronounced rate in the coming months.

You have some great information in your posts. I don't know how you find it all. I hope you heard that we have another model home under contract.

I'd like to see home sales prices get within 10% of their rental rate capacity and no more. That seems healthy. This is making the whole business more lean. Those whose employment position falls into the overhead category instead of the production side may need to find new skills. I'm more concerned for realtors than small builders. It feels like there is something changing regarding realtor commissions. I don't know how it'll shake out, but there's something about more internet based buyers. I don't know how this fits in, but I met a realtor who is not JOE owned that is apparently the Broker for a JOE community South of Tallahassee. This seems like a market notable to me. Any thoughts?