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Hurricane Irma

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Seriously, folks. I've been studying the cone a lot for over a week. As late as Thurs 2PM the center of the track was predicted off shore to the east of the Peninsula. It has drifted since then to approximately centered on Tallahassee in 2.5 days. In one more full day, the center of the track could drift towards us, and it has drifted towards us a lot in the last 6 hours. I think that evacuating is the best idea, at this time. I think we are leaving at about noon. We will have 20-25 mph winds all day today, so be safe in making preparations.
 
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My last post got deleted because it was a naked link. Sorry about that, I must have overlooked that rule. Below is a (modestly draped) local update link for Irma.
Latest on Hurricane Irma Hopefully this satisfies the parameters because it is good information to have and it updates when new reports come in. Be safe!
 
The images at the beginning of this thread auto-update, the cone has not shifted west in awhile but keep an eagle eye on it. As of now looks like Irma will be a category one when it reaches our latitiude, with tropical storm force winds in SoWal with moderate rainfall. But rain totals are hard to predict, because of the way the rain bands and trains in cyclones.

latest local forecast: equivalent tropical storm force wind
- peak wind forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- window for tropical storm force winds: monday morning until monday afternoon

potential impacts: limited
- minor damage to frame built homes, limited primarily due to loss of roof shingles or gutters as well as damage to porches, awnings, carports and sheds. some mobile homes damaged. unsecured lightweight objects blown around.
- a few trees uprooted, with many large limbs snapped.
- isolated road closures due to fallen debris, especially in wooded areas.
- isolated power and communication outages.

* storm surge
- no storm surge inundation forecast
 
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Birmingham may get it worse than we do, at least as far as power outages. Looks like Irma is going to give the mouth breathers in Tallahassee a direct lesson about climate change.

093910_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
11AM EDT update has computer model track shift quite a bit to the east of Tampa Bay which means it will be over land more and may weaken faster.

at201711_model.gif
 
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