Hurricane Isaac

[bluemtnrunner]

Where are low lying areas? We intend to be open at Edward's this evening.

 

[Lake View Too]

My head hurts from reading all these posts. I can't wait for the National Republican Convention...not!

 

[deasnealy]

What is considered a low lying area for mandatory evacuation?

 

[dragonfly8201]

Just got a call from the sheriff's department issuing a voluntary evacuation order for visitors and non residents in low lying areas south of 20, and a mandatory evacuation order at 3PM for Walton Co. residents in low lying areas south of 20. Estimating also that the Clyde Wells bridge will be closed at 5PM on Monday. Are schools closing?

 

[bluemtnrunner]

Ladies and gentlemen, it is time for a beer! I am so confused.

 

[Beach Runner]

For Beach Runner:
Models are not in agreement. Here is the Euro - it's an animation, wait for it to load. This is one of the better performing models. It still has us as the bull's eye. The uncertainty has to do with a turn up towards us.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...a!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

And what I just saw on The Weather Channel is that even though the cones of probability have shifted west, there will be high winds throughout Florida. Thus the need for a possible mandatory evacuation because bridges close at 40 mph. Thanks for the correction.

 

[lenzoe]

And what I just saw on The Weather Channel is that even though the cones of probability have shifted west, there will be high winds throughout Florida. Thus the need for a possible mandatory evacuation because bridges close at 40 mph. Thanks for the correction.

I will only believe this if Jim Cantore said so.

 

[Arkiehawg]

Less confidence than usual in the track. From Masters new post this morning:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2206








The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions.

And:


The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.

Latest European has the trough picking it up and hitting P-Cola at a high Cat 3/low Cat 4. Grrrr

 

[lenzoe]

What is considered a low lying area for mandatory evacuation?

Good question. Unnecessarily vague. I'd say anything directly gulf front, and anything directly on a dune lake. Everything else is debatable. Not sure about bay front.

 

[lenzoe]

Has anyone been through a mandatory evacuation before? If so, I'd love to hear your story. I don't recall one for Katrina, or even for Dennis. Was there?