Hurricane Predictions 2006

[Smiling JOe]

from accuweather.com

 

[TooFarTampa]

I know that is good news for us, but it is still creepy and scary.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Let me state that I am not putting any weight on accuweather's prediction map.

 

[InletBchDweller]

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this.. (would be nice though)

 

[Smiling JOe]

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this.. (would be nice though)

Nice is all relative. I am sure that people on the east coast of the US and the folks on the east coast of TX do not think this map is nice.

Also, what does "low" probability mean? -- Only 1 major storm hitting our area?

 

[TooFarTampa]

I guess it's time to check in daily with Dr. Masters' blog over at Wunderground. He's no Mike Bettis , but I just love the fact that he is a weather geek who can explain things to the masses. His entry on May 11 regarding the upcoming season was very interesting.

Dr. Masters' blog

At least it looks pretty good for those of us concerned about the rental season, but those Gulf temps could ruin things with a tropical storm or two. I'm not only concerned about the rental season, of course, but it would be nice to have a quiet summer.

 

[DBOldford]

This is an interesting map and is consistent with the CO hurricane guru's forecast for 2006. The unfortunate thing is that all the high probability areas are near major population centers. A strong storm in the Houston area would be very destructive, with LA on the strong eastern side. And the bigger hurricanes along NC's Outer Banks change the entire landscape and ecosystem. Although parts of New England are shown as high probability, the cooler Ocean temps in that area portend less intensity in storms, 1938 nothwithstanding.

I think we should all stay prepare and remain mindful that in the worst hurricane season (2005) in recorded history, we did not have loss of life or tremendous damage on the FL Panhandle.

And the insurance companies should stop using these forecasts of things that have not even happened yet as an excuse for jacking their prices up or, worse, cancelling the coverage of some. Jeb Bush, where are you on the subject of these corporate misdeads? :rofl:

 

[goofer]

if accu weather is correct in their forecast, this could be a very very possitive event for real estate in sowal and also for ST JOE stock. it is worth a little speculation to buy some common stock. if wall street accepts this forecast, the stock will be bought in anticipation of a mild hurricane season where st. joe's has development property. just a hunch. buy a bunch !!















st. joe

 

[Smiling JOe]

Goofer, you must think that if a Cat 4 strikes the TX coast, which has a high probability on this chart, that no damage will occur here.

 

[DBOldford]

Actually, the huge and powerful Ivan came ashore at the AL/FL state line (80 miles west) and delivered us some punch and storm surge. Dennis came into Pensacola (60 miles west) and created some damage. But I don't think a storm along the TX coast (400 miles west) would deliver more than some beach erosion due to high surf. Not to underestimate the impacts of that, mind you. A couple of healthy tropical storms could accomplish the same thing. But nothing like the destructive force that occurred along the Alabama, Mississippi, Lousianna coasts or even in Pensacola. Two entirely different dynamics. SJ, I assume you are thinking in terms of beach erosion.

So far as following forecasts, can anyone deny that 3/4 of the men in American would follow TWC meteorologist, Stefanie Abrams into the eye of a Cat 5 storm? My husband would follow Stef or Rachel Ray anywhere!