Smiling JOe
SoWal Expert
This morning, I hear that scientists are saying that we may need a Cat 6. :shock:
-
Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
Hurricane Predictions 2006
- Thread starter Smiling JOe
- Start date
Smiling JOe
SoWal Expert
because of global warming, the storms we have seen in the past could be the old norm. The Hurricane Larry, which hit Australia a couple of months ago, would have been a Cat 6 if they had that category.jdarg said:
peapod1980
percy
The Today Show did a piece on the 2006 hurricane season this morning and said 60% of people living in the hurricane zone have no plan or supplies for riding out another hurricane. In hopes of encouraging people to prepare, Florida has lifted sales tax on hurricane survival supplies. Did make me wonder, though, what exactly falls into this category--I'm assuming not nonperishable food, though that could certainly be a necessity. 
Smiling JOe
SoWal Expert
peapod1980 said:The Today Show did a piece on the 2006 hurricane season this morning and said 60% of people living in the hurricane zone have no plan or supplies for riding out another hurricane. In hopes of encouraging people to prepare, Florida has lifted sales tax on hurricane survival supplies. Did make me wonder, though, what exactly falls into this category--I'm assuming not nonperishable food, though that could certainly be a necessity.
FYI - raw groceries are not taxed in Florida anyway, so you can buy canned food items untaxed year round.
Items included in this week's tax relief include:
- Flashlights and portable, self-powered light sources ? $20 or less
- Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios ? for $50 or less
- Flexible waterproof sheeting (tarps) ? $50 or less
- Gas or diesel fuel containers ? $25 or less
- Batteries ? $30 or less
- Non-electrical food storage coolers ? $30 or less
- Portable generators ? $1,000 or less
- Carbon monoxide detectors ? $75 or less
- Storm shutter devices ? $200 or less
- Cell phone batteries ? $60 or less
More details here.
What category storm was Larry when it went ashore in Australia? Hurricanes almost aways reduce velocity significantly before they make landfall. If they are Cat 5 out at sea, they typically reduce to a strong Cat 3 by landfall. Mind you, that's not to underestimate the damage associated with a strong Cat 3. Since most of the damage is caused by storm surge, the actual size of the storm is as important as the wind velocity (which also creates storm surge). Ivan covered the entire Gulf of Mexico and had a huge storm surge. Opal was a large storm with very high velocity, yet it stalled out at sea before making landfall, so storm surge wasn't as bad as predicted. Still, Opal washed away the old Conch Out cottage and porch furniture from Wash-a-way was floating in "downtown" Grayton after the storm.
It will be interesting to see if the predictions are accurate for this year. People who attempt to predict earthquakes in CA are totally disregarded. Of course, their predictions never come true. Even the psychics have a better track record and they are not very accurate, either.
It will be interesting to see if the predictions are accurate for this year. People who attempt to predict earthquakes in CA are totally disregarded. Of course, their predictions never come true. Even the psychics have a better track record and they are not very accurate, either.
Smiling JOe
SoWal Expert
Donna said:
From this link:
"Cyclone Larry made landfall near Cairns, Queensland, with winds of up to 180 mph (290 km/hr). Larry reportedly flattened sugarcane fields and banana crops, ripped roofs off houses and uprooted trees in a 300km-wide swath (186 miles)."
If Cat 6 is set with windspeeds = or > 175mph, Larry would have been a Cat 6 when it hit land. :shock:
Larry was at one time reported to be the second strongest hurricane ever recorded. I am not sure if it surpassed number one in stregth.
hi n dry
Beach Lover
NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
highlights below:
The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be.
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"
Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.
This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Ni?o years of 1997 and 2002.
Although we expect a very active hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last year?s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this time.
Also, a combination of conditions led to the record 2005 season. Some of those, particularly an amplified upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S., long periods of suppressed convection near the date line, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region, are simply not predictable at this time.
Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Ni?o favors fewer hurricanes and La Ni?a favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
highlights below:
The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be.
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"
Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.
This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Ni?o years of 1997 and 2002.
Although we expect a very active hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last year?s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this time.
Also, a combination of conditions led to the record 2005 season. Some of those, particularly an amplified upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S., long periods of suppressed convection near the date line, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region, are simply not predictable at this time.
Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Ni?o favors fewer hurricanes and La Ni?a favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm