Ida heading toward SoWal [downgraded to tropical storm]

[beachmouse]

Given the wind shear, climatology, and other environmental factors, odds are that Ida will go wide right and make landfall as a tropical storm somewhere between Ceday Key and Ft. Myers, provided that she doesn't dissipate altogether during her Central American meander.

 

[Miss Critter]

Given the wind shear, climatology, and other environmental factors, odds are that Ida will go wide right and make landfall as a tropical storm somewhere between Ceday Key and Ft. Myers, provided that she doesn't dissipate altogether during her Central American meander.

I vote for that plan.

 

[Hop]

surfs up

 

[passin thru]

What's this craziness?? I thought past October we were in the clear.

THANKS for the heads up - I had no idea.

G

Storm "season" is a result of stats & probabilities, the relative likelihood of a storm hitting during a given period:

November has lower probability, but not zero.

 

[Beach Boy]

We were living in Tallahassee in November, 1985 when Hurricane Kate hit. It spawned many tornadoes and knocked out the power. Many people were unable to prepare Thanksgiving meals. That is the latest (in the season) hurricane I can recall and I've been through many. Let's hope and pray this one chooses to go out into the Atlantic and disappear!

 

[Rudyjohn]

We were living in Tallahassee in November, 1985 when Hurricane Kate hit. It spawned many tornadoes and knocked out the power. Many people were unable to prepare Thanksgiving meals. That is the latest (in the season) hurricane I can recall and I've been through many. Let's hope and pray this one chooses to go out into the Atlantic and disappear!

I remember this. We lived in the Tampa Bay area and were driving up to see my dad in Andalusia for Thanksgiving. We didn't think we were gonna make it there!

 

[Bobby J]

Long surf trip and return to this..... Life is good!

 

[ChillPill]

Given the wind shear, climatology, and other environmental factors, odds are that Ida will go wide right and make landfall as a tropical storm somewhere between Ceday Key and Ft. Myers, provided that she doesn't dissipate altogether during her Central American meander.

I sure hope that Ida has a mid-ocean crisis and she just dissipates! But at least we have a little bit of time to prepare just in case...

 

[NotDeadYet]

Here is this morning's Ida discussion from crownweather.com (Friday Nov 6)
Looking a little close to SoWal

Ida is over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua this morning and it has weakened to a 35 mph tropical depression. Most of the deep thunderstorm activity is on the north side of the storm. Looking at satellite loops this morning, I suspect that Ida will be back over water in the northwest Caribbean by late this afternoon or early this evening, if not sooner. Once in the northwest Caribbean, Ida is expected to strengthen. The latest intensity guidance has a pretty large spread and ranges from a moderate tropical storm in about 3 to 4 days (SHIPS/DSHIPS) to a hurricane in 3 to 4 days (GFDL/HWRF). At this point, it seems likely based on the overall weather pattern in the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, that Ida will strengthen, possibly significantly, as the environment will be favorable and sea surface temperatures are quite warm; in fact, the wind shear over the northwest Caribbean may in fact line up with the forward motion of Ida and aid in intensification this weekend. So, for right now I am forecasting that Ida will be either a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning as it pushes into the Gulf of Mexico.
Ida is tracking nearly due north at a forward speed of 6 mph. This motion may actually continue through this weekend and Ida should reach the southernmost Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning and the central Gulf of Mexico by later Tuesday. After that, the forecast becomes quite tricky as Ida may start being steered by a trough of low pressure that digs into the northern Gulf of Mexico and thus turns to the northeast. This northeast motion will cause the storm to move parallel to the shear and thus either maintain its strength or perhaps even strengthen a little more. The model guidance seems to be now clustering on a end track that would eventually bring Ida onshore somewhere between just north of Tampa and the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle as we head towards later next week. Another possibility is that this trough of low pressure misses Ida and leaves it meandering in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. If this happens, then strong and unfavorable shear and dry air would rip it apart.
So, here is my thinking: I think Ida will move back over water in the northwest Caribbean by late this afternoon or very early this evening and track northward through the northwest Caribbean this weekend. I also expect Ida to intensify this weekend. By Monday morning, I think Ida will be pushing into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane. Once it is in the Gulf of Mexico, I think Ida will move nearly parallel to the shear, especially when it turns more to the northeast on Tuesday, so I suspect Ida will maintain that strength or perhaps even strengthen a little more, so I am forecasting that Ida will be a low end Category 1 hurricane as it tracks through the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. At this time, there is a chance that Ida will come ashore somewhere between just north of Tampa and the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle either on Thursday or next Friday as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane. In addition, Ida would also be a major rainfall producer for Florida and other parts of the southeast United States later next week.

 

[Gidget]

Not a lot has changed - ugh - we don't need this while constructing!