Interview w/ St. Joe CEO

[Smiling JOe]

Speaking of the stock market, I already see the writing on the wall.....

Many of us (including Peter Rummel, JOE CEO) feel that much of the real estate slow down in '05 has been driven by the negative media frenzy. Well now I think the tide is going to turn.

It appears that the media has found it's new focus, which is being bullish on the stock market in '06. Watch, all you will see and hear about now is how great the stock market and economy look moving forward. Real Estate bashing will start to loose it's luster with the media and I think that in turn will do nothing but help ease unwarranted fear and uncertainty in the minds of potential real estate investors.

That could also cause much of the cash, which is sitting on the sidelines, to be invested in stocks, and could keep real estate at a flat line growth.

 

[GreenWaveDave]

True..... I've seen real estate boom simultaneously with the stock market in certain areas, as many people just feel more confident and wealthier in general. They may look at their paper gains in the stock market and feel rich enough to go and buy more real estate. You're right though, some investors may go more toward whatever the hot investement of the day is.

 

[SHELLY]

GreenWaveDave:

The topic is a very useful one. I have some Joe stock and am holding on to it. As for me, I'm hanging in there with Joe, in part, because I don't have too much invested -- just enough to make it interesting. Personally, I try to think long-term and not short-term.

IMO:

JOE is a fairly decent company to hold long term. Much of JOE's "low hanging fruit" (beachfront) has been picked and previous earnings will be difficult if not impossible to meet or beat in the coming years. Developing the timber property into useable "affordable" housing won't be as easy or profitable.
(Clearing and selling beachfront lots in already established "high cost" areas with roads, facilities and infrastructure during a real estate boom was a no-brainer.)

Folks who chase double-digit returns will be moving out of real estate this year and into other investments (international or precious metals maybe?). I suspect some double-digit hopefuls are holding their stock until JOE reports earnings (@ early Feb)--if the company issues "not so good" guidance before the release, the speculators will dump and run and the stock will go down. JOE's YEARLY report (released with the quarterly) should look VERY good and you may see a pop (probably triggering some "short" covering) which may be a good opportunity to take some profits off the table before it retreats and flatlines later.

If you're holding long-term, JOE isn't a bad bet to hold as a real estate play in a well-diversified portfolio, but I don't see it ever matching the returns it enjoyed in the past year or so in the near term. (Some who've doubled (or more) on this stock, already took some profits off the table and are now playing with JOE's money.)

Again IMO.

 

[Paula]

Let's hope you're right, Shelly. I bought at 73 this summer, watched it go up to above 80, and then watched it go down to in the high 50s and now up into the 60s. My husband had Whole Foods for a while several years ago, then dumped it when it was going down thinking people weren't going to spend so much money on organic and specialty foods (figured the organic food thing was a passing trend). He sure wishes he held onto it (and we happily buy most of our fish and meat at Whole Foods). Anyway, if Joe tanks, I'll just be happy I'm diversified!

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

 

[SHELLY]

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years.

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

 

[Advance The Man]

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

Insider selling by execs (with no insider buying) sends somewhat "negative" signals to shareholders that execs don't totally believe the information they are releasing to the public.

 

[Paula]

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years.

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

Agreed. I've thought about stop-loss but am also considering just riding it a while. We'll see. It's not that much money I have invested in Joe.

 

[SHELLY]

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

 

[Just_In_Thyme]

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

 

[SHELLY]

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

Chesapeake Energy has had quite a run too--and their insiders were (and still are) buying up shares.