The models just can't converge on a track prediction. Apart from questions of what 97 may or may not evolve into, it's not very clear where it's going, either. Looks like we should know by Friday.
Probably going to largely be a non-event in tropical weather terms. If it was late August instead of late July, I'd be a lot more worried. Nothing from NWS Tallahassee yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
818 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...TROPICAL STORM BONNIE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY TONIGHT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN
COASTAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN... INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7N...LONGITUDE 79.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FL. BONNIE WAS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 19 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.