JP Morgan - Florida prices still have signifigant downside potential

[30ashopper]

Interesting note from JP Morgan -

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent ? the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan?s estimation ? those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

Not a pretty picture at all.

 

[AAbsolute]

I think that we are seeing the national debt coming to call. How did you think it would look when it finally showed up?

www.brillig.com/debt_clock

 

[traderx]

I think that we are seeing the national debt coming to call. How did you think it would look when it finally showed up?

www.brillig.com/debt_clock

According to bea.gov, the current quarterly budget deficit is $812 billion. That easily puts our federal debt over $10 trillion. We now have a $700 billion bailout and the Dems in the Congress are trying to hang more spending onto the bailout legislation and today comes the news that the Senate approved a $634 billion spending appropriation to keep the government running. BTW, the spending bill was approved by a 78-12 margin. Bush is expected to sign it. And Obama, who figures to win in November, has promised to spend more money.

If there was ever a time for a third party, now is the time. We need a Libertarian influence in this country. What we are doing to our kids and grandkids is sad.

http://bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Tab...stYear=2008&3Place=N&Update=Update&JavaBox=no

 

[AAbsolute]

According to bea.gov, the current quarterly budget deficit is $812 billion. That easily puts our federal debt over $10 trillion. We now have a $700 billion bailout and the Dems in the Congress are trying to hang more spending onto the bailout legislation and today comes the news that the Senate approved a $634 billion spending appropriation to keep the government running. BTW, the spending bill was approved by a 78-12 margin. Bush is expected to sign it. And Obama, who figures to win in November, has promised to spend more money.

If there was ever a time for a third party, now is the time. We need a Libertarian influence in this country. What we are doing to our kids and grandkids is sad.

http://bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Tab...stYear=2008&3Place=N&Update=Update&JavaBox=no

I was educated on Libertarianism by Irv Homer in Philadelphia in 1993. I was 24 years old at the time and full of optimism in the American citizen. Fast forward 15 years and I am less optimistic about the American citizen. Libertarianism only works if you can trust nearly all of your fellow citizens to live and let live. They won't.

There is a graph of the rise and fall of nations that was editorialized in the Walton Sun about 2 months ago. I can't put my hands on it this evening. It was entitled,"Every person must carry their own water" or something to that affect. It was a fact of social behavior about generations and what they beget. If someone has a way to upload the piece it is probably most fitting.

This works well in its stead:
Sadhu mirandal ? If an otherwise harmless person is driven to a situation of desperation, nobody would be able to withstand his fury.

Chances come to us and we don?t seek them. Unlike Chance, Choice is a voluntary action. Choice presupposes Alternatives. Like Choice, Freedom presupposes Alternatives. When there are no Alternatives, there is no Freedom, but only Necessity.

 

[Bob]

please note that the business cycle exists, and that perpetual expansion is not possible