Maybe the sky is not falling after all?

[AAbsolute]

Beachfront/Gulfview properties are not "unlimited" of course. These properties are rare. So I don't think what you say applies to them.

I agree with that 100%.

At the same time, JOE has most all of Watersound West Beach to sell and they are oblitering the competition with that one. That's a neighborhood that has its own private beach access, full amenities and the Watersound Beach Club. They sold original properties for about 750,000 and now product like that in there is + or - 300,000. What that did strategically is, that other developers bought into their parent parcels at a rate that precludes them from competing. That takes whole sub-divisions out of favorable play.

Watersound North, with golf and the Watersound Beach Club, and the last phase of Watercolor equally obliterates the 2nd tier sub-division competition. I'm surprised that JOE hasn't supported their own customers in this, some of whom bought into the projects I mentioned directly from JOE, but they have chosen to sell property at todays rate which is the only way to sell property.

These properties add about 1,900 new lots to the available inventory in Sowal.

 

[bentley williams]

I agree Joe could slash prices. But for all the reasons you mention, they can afford to wait if they choose. However they do have stockholders to please, so we will see.

When everyone says BUY, it might be time to sell. On the other side, the smart folks are going to start buying. Most of them will be very big predators but little fish with a little cash and low rates will become big fish over time.

 

[AAbsolute]

JOE sells land for their revenue. As told to me by three of their exec's, "We don't sell paper anymore, we sell real estate." If JOE doesn't sell real estate it doesn't generate revenue. I am pretty sure that it is beneficial for them to come in below the pre-boom pricing and trap in the existing post-boom owners.

I admit I'm uneducated and have no training other than field training so take what I say with quite a few grains of salt.

 

[dunefrog]

I agree with that 100%.

At the same time, JOE has most all of Watersound West Beach to sell and they are oblitering the competition with that one. That's a neighborhood that has its own private beach access, full amenities and the Watersound Beach Club. They sold original properties for about 750,000 and now product like that in there is + or - 300,000. What that did strategically is, that other developers bought into their parent parcels at a rate that precludes them from competing. That takes whole sub-divisions out of favorable play.

Watersound North, with golf and the Watersound Beach Club, and the last phase of Watercolor equally obliterates the 2nd tier sub-division competition. I'm surprised that JOE hasn't supported their own customers in this, some of whom bought into the projects I mentioned directly from JOE, but they have chosen to sell property at todays rate which is the only way to sell property.

These properties add about 1,900 new lots to the available inventory in Sowal.

Can't disagree with anything you say. I bought a Watersound Beach condo. Even in WS Beach there are many empty homesites still (as you know). I'm thinking these will all fill in in a next 5 years, and I guess West Beach will do the same within that time frame. Your thoughts?

But I really can't understand where all the buyers for Watersound North and the newer parts of Watercolor are coming from any time soon. There just doesn't seem to be that many locals/retirees in the market for upscale housing like that. Many similar properties. Little to distinguish one from the other. I guess JOE is banking on a mass migration into the area. But there are many beautiful, warm places in this country that have great golf courses. Who knows?

When I think of SoWal, I'm thinking beach. Since I'm not local, I just don't think about what it would be like to live in one of the normal neighborhoods. I don't know enough about that. But I remain very bullish on beachfront/gulfview for the simple reason that, for those properties, demand will always be high and supply limited.

 

[beachmouse]

Same here thoughts with Watersound North. There's a lot of lots out there, the people with $500K for a vacation home can do better south of 98 (heck, you can buy a house in Watercolor in the mid-high 500s and that's a far better location) and if you're going to sell them to primary residence middle class families in this area, you need a price point somewhere in the $250-$350K range. Which is still on the high price end of things considering family incomes, but at a point where you might start getting higher buyer volume.

 

[scooterbug44]

Yes, properties on or near the beach will always be in demand and hold value, but it's not like there are only 1 or 2 left. By my guesstimate, there's enough vacant land to add hundreds more homes within a block or 2 of the beach and thousands south of 98.

Watersound, Watercolor, Seaside, Alys etc. will completely fill out, but it will be because of buildouts/that's how they planned it, not because we have used up all available land.

 

[30ashopper]

Can't disagree with anything you say. I bought a Watersound Beach condo. Even in WS Beach there are many empty homesites still (as you know). I'm thinking these will all fill in in a next 5 years, and I guess West Beach will do the same within that time frame. Your thoughts?

More like 15 to 20. Looking at current communities in the area that started selling in 1999 and these are still maybe 50% or more lots? It's takes a lot longer than five years, especially in markets like these.

Same here thoughts with Watersound North. There's a lot of lots out there, the people with $500K for a vacation home can do better south of 98 (heck, you can buy a house in Watercolor in the mid-high 500s and that's a far better location) and if you're going to sell them to primary residence middle class families in this area, you need a price point somewhere in the $250-$350K range. Which is still on the high price end of things considering family incomes, but at a point where you might start getting higher buyer volume.

Lots or homes? I'm seeing homes in Windswept for 200-250K. North of 98 I'd say needs to be in this area for the whole package before you move any property. Even then, right now, it's tough for these income groups to get loans, so I'd say these areas will be stagnate for another 2 years or so followed by a slow recovery.

 

[beachmouse]

$250K-$350K for lot and home combined. It would seem like buyers ould be willing to pay a little bit of a premium to get south of the Bay, so I'd put what they could charge as slightly higher than what they could charge in Freeport.

If you've got 1,000 lots north of 98, the competition is more Windswept, Hammock Bay, random large mid level PCB project, etc. than something in walking distance to the beach, and it needs to be priced to compete with those places. (Okay, maybe not Windswept because Windswept's seriously beyond BFE in terms of location, good golf or no, but you get the drift)

 

[AAbsolute]

Yes, properties on or near the beach will always be in demand and hold value, but it's not like there are only 1 or 2 left. By my guesstimate, there's enough vacant land to add hundreds more homes within a block or 2 of the beach and thousands south of 98.

Watersound, Watercolor, Seaside, Alys etc. will completely fill out, but it will be because of buildouts/that's how they planned it, not because we have used up all available land.

I know you know JOE neighborhoods, but do you think they will really enforce buildouts?

 

[fisher]

I know you know JOE neighborhoods, but do you think they will really enforce buildouts?

They can't and they won't.

Enforcement means buying back lots at original sales prices. That would require significant cash outlays and most of the lots they would need to repurchase would be at boom prices. You think Joe will buyback at boom prices then have to resell at a loss at current prices. Don't think so.