My Iron Man Uniform

[SHELLY]

I don't seem to be alone in my findings, check this WSJ article -

"The Housing Crisis is Over"

To paraphrase-

"How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor."

Woo Hoo!!!!!

(1) This fairytale, written by a hedgie, appears in the "Opinion" section on A-23 (which is to say that you're still pretty much alone as far as the WSJ goes).

(2) If prices aren't to return to the "Heady 2005" levels for 15 years--what's that say to the bazillion investulators who plunked down $500K - $2M for their 1000sf Florida condo boxes in 2005 and are now trying to dump them? I doubt they'll be willing/able to continue feeding the beast for the next 15 years to "break even" (which will be impossible seeing that they have to pay out a sizeable chunk of cash to carry them month, after month, after month, after month).

(3) Your attempt to get me to toss high-priced produce your way in this recessionary period isn't gonna work.


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[30ashopper]

If it stays level for a while then falls in a steepening decline over 6 months, ok. IMHO, you're jumping the gun on this one. Two equal months of short sales in a slow market at peak season indicate much to nothing. Short sales come from people who feel the heat but haven't felt the fire. Owners had their hopes invested in the spring selling season (which was flat) so they held off hoping. Lets see where the short sales stats go over the next few months, my bet is they'll head upward. Foreclosure rates over the last few months might be interesting to look at as well, those folks didn't have the choice of waiting. I see those climbing.

I'm also interested in sales vs. inventory trends over the last five months. Walton County shows flat sales for the last two months, and the MLS shows massive increases in inventory in the areas I'm watching over the same period. That doesn't spell a bottom to me. Plus we still have the lingering subprimers who aren't out of the picture yet, the alt-a resets starting next year, the economy, steadily increasing rates on 30 year fixed loans, shadow inventory we can't see, the climbing national foreclosure rate, bank failures on the horizon, etc. etc..

All of these factors affect people who buy here. My take is this isn't a local market, we are driven by other markets like Atlanta (dismal), Texas (heading into decline), Alabama (dismal), Southern Florida (cratering), Mississippi (down), Ohio, Indiana, Virginia (all in decline), New Jersey (steep declines just starting), and on and on and on. It aint pretty out there for people interested in property down here that's for sure and my guess is it wont get any better for quite some time.

 

[Joe Mammy]

30ashopper-
Watching the short sales is key. There are alot under contract. If they close then great. If they don't then foreclosure is inevitable. Foreclosures on the rise is fine, they are taking out the short sales and determining market value. The REOs are usually priced at or just below market for quick sales which is also good. It is up to the realtors to sell off the short sales and foreclosures to turn it around...

Shelly- not even one 'mator and a head of lettuce?

 

[SHELLY]

Shelly- not even one 'mator and a head of lettuce?

Not a chance! The economic problems we're encountering is just the tip of the iceburg <rimshot>.

 

[Bobby J]

I was sitting here thinking about where the bottom is.... Then, I wonder what does that really mean? I think we will be at the bottom when we stop talking about the bottom.

 

[SHELLY]

I was sitting here thinking about where the bottom is.....

The bottom is down there <pointing down>.

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[Mango]

The bottom is down there <pointing down>.

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Yep, last I looked my bottom was still there, albeit saggier.

 

[Babyblue]

As seen on WJHG last week......

The American dream is becoming a nightmare for millions of Americans who are losing their homes to foreclosure. 161 Bay Contains lost their homes last month, an all time high. The Walton County numbers are even more staggering.

Many families feel the pressure every month when the bills start rolling in. For millions of Americans the financial struggles start because they can't afford their homes and it's causing many families to have to face foreclose.

William Howell is a lawyer in Santa Rosa Beach. Recently he's seen an increase in foreclosure cases and says almost 75 percent of his work load proves it.

William S. Howell, Jr., attorney at law, said, "Most of the people that own property now owned it for three or four years. My guess is quite of few of them were buying with the intention of holding for a year and flipping the condo or the lots. They've been holding for almost three years now and they're running out of money."

Newschannel 7 called officials in Walton County to see how the numbers had changed over the years. Here's what we found out. From 2005 to 2007 the number of foreclosed homes had increased more than four times the original number; 171 one foreclosed homes in 2005 compared to 721 foreclosures in 2007.

Through April, Walton County has already seen 509 foreclosures and if everything stays the way it is by the end of this year you could see over 1,500 foreclosed homes just in Walton County.

"I've talked with people from time to time that have drawn all their IRA accounts down, they've borrowed money, run up credit cards and many are just throwing up their hands and giving up and realizing they've done all they can do. "

Howell says if you find yourself in this situation there are things you should consider before you face foreclosure.

"I would suggest for people who are totally out of funds and still holding these types of properties need to talk to an attorney that handles bankruptcy. Bankruptcy attorneys can give you some good advice and help you plan a little bit."

About 1/4 of the homes foreclosed this year in Walton County were condo properties

 

[AAbsolute]

How many home sales are there each year

Does anyone know how many lots sold in 2005,2006 and 2007 South of the bay? Does anyone know how many homes sold in 2005, 2006 and 2007 South of the bay? How many foreclosures have been filed this year? Thanks

 

[30ashopper]

I only track single family sales. No idea on condos or lots.

This is shaping up to be the lowest year for single family home sales since 98. If the correction is only about half way through as people are saying, the numbers could be even worse by the end of the year.

Note April sales in these graphs are not accurate as Walton County records aren't up to date yet.