Oct 2009 South Walton Sales (Homes, Condo, Townhomes)

[Em]

Are You Sleeping While the Train Passes the Station?
by Murray Balkcom, GRI, Realtor
SoWal?s Real Estate Guru
Coldwell Banker United, Realtors
murraybalkcom@yahoo.com
www.dreamBIGproperties.com

Nov 18, 2009

For the last three years, I?ve listened to many people talk about waiting until the real estate market hits bottom before they will purchase. We all know that the bottom is seen only in hindsight, but by watching the market closely and constantly, we can begin to see trends and changes in the market, which might alert us to shifts which we later recognize as peaks or troughs. The charts I created below are not intended to point out a bottom, because we won?t recognize a bottom until we are well off the bottom floor and it is behind us. However, if you look closely at the charts below, you will see a market shift over the last several months.


2009 vs 2008 South Walton Sales - Homes, Condos, Townhomes

I don?t want to throw too much historical data at you, but I will share a bit for context. Looking at the South Walton sales for Homes, Condos, and Townhomes, over the last several years, we see a common trend. Generally, we see an upward trend in sales from Jan through July of each year. Then, from August through December, we see sales decline.

With that background setting the context, it is interesting to note the sales in 2009. In the chart above, don?t just compare 2009 to 2008. Also look at 2009 sales month to month. Since July 2009, we see the total dollar sales volume of Homes, Condos, and Townhomes which sold in South Walton, increase month over month, with October sales dollar volume showing an increase of 42% over July sales, and ...READ MORE HERE

 

[gmarc]

murray you forgot one factor and its the most important factor. $6 TRILLION OF PAPER WEALTH HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE STOCK MARKETS MASSIVE 65% GOV'T INDUCED RUN.30-a has a special charm and will always stand on its own but i'm very pessimistic about the next 5-10 years.This massive gov't intervention the past year has basically pushed back a true long term turnaround by 5-10 years. the us is now saddled with $12 trillion of debt that means huge tax increases and higher interest rates in the years ahead. by squandering trillions on zombie bankrupt companies the gov't has misallocated precious capital.as i said 30-a will always do well due to its stunning unmatched beauty

 

[SHELLY]

....so now is a great time to buy???

.

 

[30ashopper]

Murray, can you get a median sale price graph sans condos and townhomes, for the SoWal area, excluding everything west of the 30a cutoff?

 

[Em]

Ray, I didn't forget about the paper wealth of the stock market. I am not reporting on the stock market and am not predicting the future 5-10 years. My report is focused on past sales, not future sales.

I simply point out that sales are happening, while many people continue to wait until we see an upward curve. Well, guess what, the upward curve of sales in both quantity and dollar volume appears in the stats. Median Sold price is leveling out somewhat. Will it continue to grow? I don't know, but I can definitely see changes over the last four months in sales quantity and dollar volume.

Shelly asks a great question, "Is now a great time to buy?"

It depends. If you find the property you want and you can afford it, and you feel it has value to you, then perhaps you should consider it. Should you buy a property just because other people are? No, no, no!

30ashopper, thanks for asking. Yes, I keep those stats and can make you a chart on median sales price for that specific area. Do you want to include sales in the area north of hwy 98 in the area you mention?

If anyone has other special area request of data, please ask and I will try to get the info for you.

 

[Em]

30ashopper,
Here is the chart you requested, including the areas in South Walton, north of Hwy 98.

I went back to 2000 to give some perspective. Interestingly, we are at the same level as the beginning of 2004, when the run-up started. Most of the buyers starting in 2004-2007 were what I call flippers, rather than end users. It seems to me that we are exactly where we should be if the flippers had not bought in.

 

[Kurt]

Good stuff Murray - thanks for posting!

Many people have been saying we'd bump along the bottom for awhile and that may be true since there are still national economic problems, but I am hearing about a lot of people moving here right now, especially families. Maybe it is the adjustment in the prices. People who thought they missed their chance with rising prices but now have gotten a second chance and aren't going to miss it this time.

 

[Em]

I think we have enough inventory out there that we will continue to see median price remain more level than trend upward, because all of those would-be sellers will have to adjust price to meet the buyers' perception of value, in order to make a sale. Most of the inventory is overpriced, but that needs an entirely new thread. I'll pull some numbers to show why I think that most of the inventory and new listings are over-priced, and report back soon.

 

[SHELLY]

Shelly asks a great question, "Is now a great time to buy?"

It depends. If you find the property you want and you can afford it, and you feel it has value to you, then perhaps you should consider it. Should you buy a property just because other people are? No, no, no!

...that being the case, a more appropriate title for the piece would be "Don't Worry--Don't Lose Any Sleep; More Trains Will Be Coming Down This Track For Some Time To Come."

.

 

[bdc63]

Don't Worry--Don't Lose Any Sleep; More Trains Will Be Coming Down This Track For Some Time To Come."
.

LOL. Shelly is a train spotter! -- one more clue to your idenity ...

Maybe Murray hasn't seen this chart yet ...