Credit Suisse estimates that the resets will begin to accelerate next spring, rising from about $4 billion resetting in March 2010 to a peak of $14 billion in September 2011. The current level is about $1 billion. About $500 billion of option ARM loans are outstanding, according to the bank.
Option ARMs typically reset after five years, at which point the monthly bill increases 65% or more. About 37.5% of option ARMs originated in 2005 are still outstanding, 63% of the 2006 vintage are outstanding, and 82% of the 2007 loans remain, according to Barclays Capital. And about a third of the outstanding loans in these years are deeply delinquent.
In a given month, between 4% and 5% of borrowers who are current on their option ARMs taken out in 2006 and 2007 default in the following month, says Sandeep Bordia, Barclays' head of residential credit strategy, who also expects resets to be delayed until next year. "These things have been performing horrendously," Bordia said. "I don't know how much of it will last into the recast."
