Pricing graphs

[30ashopper]

Three excellent graphs from CR showing how far prices have dropped, and how far they still have to drop before we reach bottom. I think it's pretty obvious we are only half way through the decline, and I would venture a guess that SoWal will not be immune to further fall off. In fact, I'd guess that since this is largly a second home market, we may experience a more drastic fall off than areas dominated by primary residences.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/housing-its-about-prices.html

 

[30ashopper]

Here's a little local data that seems to back that up. I think pirce depreciation is in full swing right now. It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the year.

 

[ASH]

Wow! Great information.

 

[Miss Kitty]

Here's a little local data that seems to back that up. I think pirce depreciation is in full swing right now. It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the year.

This could be my EKG!

 

[Miss Critter]

This could be my EKG!

Thanks for the Friday laugh, Miss K.

 

[Smiling JOe]

That downturn in avg sales price may have something to do with so many of the sales lately, being the entry-priced homes. I have been showing many homes priced under $300K, to people looking for primary residences. In all of South Walton, looking at single family detached homes, the price range of SOLD properties, which is ruling the market, are those homes priced between $300,000 - $349,999, with 35 sales, making up 8.51 percent of the market.


Avg sales price can be useful to see trends, and median sales price will help you a little more. I agree that the trend has been downward for 2008, with the avg sales price of $717K. The median price is also lower for 2008, and it is $468K (for detached homes in South Walton).

Avg Sales price (detached homes in SoWal)
2005 $830k
2006 $900k
2007 $914k
2008 $738K (through sept 26)


Median Sales price (detached homes in SoWal)
2005 $581k
2006 $582k
2007 $562k
2008 $468k (through sept 26)

 

[SHELLY]

Here's a little local data that seems to back that up. I think pirce depreciation is in full swing right now. It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the year.

Can you chart this back to 1999?

.

 

[dunefrog]

Here's a little local data that seems to back that up. I think pirce depreciation is in full swing right now. It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the year.

This doesn't make sense to me. In the national graph from CR, we see 2005 as the peak, which, from what I have heard, was the peak in SoWal. But this ECAR graph shows prices averaging $800,000 in 2005, $850,000 in 2007, and only going below that to $700,000 in mid-2008.

Seems to me the SJ might be onto something. Maybe a different mix of properties selling at these times is skewing the results?

 

[Camp Creek Kid]

You fail to take into account the replacement value of a home which will never go back to 1999 values and, therefore, homes will never go back to 1999 prices. Right now we are nearing replacement value per square foot on homes that are not in the large developments (Rosemary, Watercolor, etc.). Excluding land, a builder is looking at around $150.00 per square foots in just costs (materials, labor) in an averagely finished home. This does not figure in the builder's profit (salary). Using these figures and taking into account that the houses that are selling are under $349,999, a modestly sized home of 2,300 square feet could be BUILT for $150.00 per square foot of COST and be at the price point to sell. However, this does not include land or builder's salary. So, it is very unlikely that prices will continue to fall.

 

[traderx]

This doesn't make sense to me. In the national graph from CR, we see 2005 as the peak, which, from what I have heard, was the peak in SoWal. But this ECAR graph shows prices averaging $800,000 in 2005, $850,000 in 2007, and only going below that to $700,000 in mid-2008.

Seems to me the SJ might be onto something. Maybe a different mix of properties selling at these times is skewing the results?

The CR graph is taken from the Case-Shilling series and depicts price to income ratio. That appears to be an affordability index as opposed to the ECAR graph which is "average" - I assume mean - home sale prices. Two different animals.