Real Estate Supply

[SHELLY]

I suspect a lot of "listings" are going underground; meaning that since 1 out of every 3 people in the county has a realtor's license and the other 2 know at least 5 people who do, sellers will start to rely on "word of mouth" sales (it saves on having to post signs and blowing up balloons for open houses).

While it's true that a lot of people can afford to keep their properties off the market, and continue paying the carrying costs, they're a little disappointed that the real estate investment they made in 2005 won't be the 20%+ cash cow they had hoped for.

And then there's the pre-construction condo mortgage conundrum yet to come:
Financing the Flip

 

[beclareesq]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

 

[RiverOtter]

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

Very few of us know each other away from the boards. Even fewer have met while in SoWal. Some have even been lucky enough to meet Smiling JOe and kurt.


BTW.... Sueshore thinks you are cute

 

[TooFarTampa]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

I "know" nobody here -- well, over a year ago I got a nice neighborly phone call from someoone that I found out later is a regular poster here -- but hang out here enough and the personalities become pretty clear. I agree this is a great place for real estate info, hurricane freak-out sessions and general info about SoWal. In the lounge, people are silly and funny, and many of the regulars have met each other. There are a few people I plan to look up next time I am up there.

I agree with your assessment of the market, and I am glad that I don't feel pressure to sell. For buyers, I think it's a great time to get in. If I were on the hunt, I might even try SHELLY's business card trick. ;-)

 

[Kimmifunn]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

Oops! You must spell FUNN with 2 N's! Rule #1.

The Funns love all. We usually don't have anything of substance to say, but we like to keep all the stiffs loosened up!

 

[WiLe]

More than anything else, negativity is hurting the RE market. Sure there's some truth in what we're hearing in the media. The markets, especially the coasts, was getting frothy from speculation. But there is a point where its just piling on and making the problem bigger than it is. A potential buyer is probably going to ruminate over what he's just heard or read. Even if he doesn't totally buy into the bubble, he's going to believe that a lot of other people are going to buy the bubble and he's not going to want to jump in when "everybody" else is jumping out. Why not be a vulture and swoop in when the multitudes are fleeing?

I believe that all this shall pass when the media has something else more important to start talking about. (Like remember when Chandra Levy and Gary Condit was the most important thing in the universe until 9/11?) A couple seasons without a major hurricane and more positive news like we heard today from the Fed will make all the difference in the world. The beach dream is not going away. In the end, prices will resume their growth - all its going to take is positivity replacing negativity - because the beach is still the beach and most people want a piece of it. PCB might look like its swimming in condos now, but 10 years down the road when tourists are flying in from Europe to buy them, they'll be hot commodities again - hotter than they were last spring, because the pool of buyers will be much, much higher and the water will be gone.

And isn't there a risk in waiting - even if prices were to dip? Suppose that interest rates did rise rather dramatically? Assuming that one was financing the dream and planning on actually using it, couldn't any savings from price reductions be cancelled out (and maybe then some) by dramatically higher interest rates? I wouldn't blame anybody for being prudent in today's environment, but prudence could turn into folly if nothing ever looks "worth it" until everybody else thinks so.

Time passes quickly and very few things, outside of some mass produced consumer goods, get cheaper over the long haul.

 

[Franny]

beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!

 

[GreenWaveDave]

Now there's the positive attitude I've been looking for. Bravo!

I couldn't agree with you more WiLe on the impact of the media (good and bad). You're right, there will be a new topic for the media to start drumming up negative sentiment about soon and in the meantime coastal RE prices will continue to go up and people will miss out on good buying opportunities if they don't wake up in time.

SoWAl is still a relative bargain. Anyone familiar with other coastal markets around the country will certainly agree.

 

[beclareesq]

beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!

Thanks..I agree that in the long run the area will always be desireable and thrive. The feel of 30A is different from any other coastal spot we've been to.

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

 

[WiLe]

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

When that ole willing buyer is watching TV on saturday morning while he's getting dressed to meet that willing seller and he happens to have the channel on a news program who's subject for today is the bubble, the buyer is influenced negatively - at least as far as the willing seller is concerned. Repeat this over and over "times millions" and this can't help but have a negative affect on the market. The 24 hour news cycle that we have today where they have to come up with something to interest and entertain the masses has all kinds of implications. The media can do amazing things. It can have us thinking the world is coming to an end or everything is coming up roses and, to our detriment, they often make the decision which side to take based on either their worldview or whatever they think we'll move us to watch them instead of Channel 3.

I know I pay attention when I hear:

IS REAL ESTATE IN A BUBBLE? - FIND OUT AT 10 ON MSNBC!!!

I didn't even have to tune in to hear the world bubble. Gosh, I was discussing the bubble in the post office line this morning - and several times since then. All this talk, talk, talk is detrimental to real estate. One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.