Senate forecast

[30ashopper]

Current stats show the most likely outcome to be a 52 D / 48 R split.(Two of the D's are actually independents who caucus with the democrats - Sanders, and Lieberman.)

However, two races are going to play a pivotal role here - West Virginia, where the Democrat Joe Manchin recently took a small 2 point lead over the republican Rease, and Washington state, where the republican Rossi is in a statistical tie with liberal Patty Murray. If these two races flip to the republican column on Tuesday, the senate will end up in perfect, 50 / 50 split. Democrats would still keep the majority, and Vice President Biden would cast any tie breaking vote.

 

[Matt J]

How will this stack up to November 2nd? Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[30ashopper]

How will this stack up to November 2nd? Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

That's the core question. West Virginia will give us insight into undecides and independents. Can't wait for the results!

 

[futurebeachbum]

How will this stack up to November 2nd? Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

If it wasn't such a thorny 1st Amendment issue, I'd love to see all political polls shut down 3 weeks before the election. That would eliminate a goodly percentage of the punditry that we have to put up with around elections and I'd enjoy that.