SHELLY
SoWal Insider
...what value are you putting on tens of thousands of acres of swamp/pine-covered unarable Florida sandy soil void of infrastructure?.....during a recession.
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St. Joe 2008 Q4 / year end conference call - 2/24/09
- Thread starter Kurt
- Start date
...what value are you putting on tens of thousands of acres of swamp/pine-covered unarable Florida sandy soil void of infrastructure?.....during a recession.
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AAbsolute
Banned
I'll give you a complete breakdown when I get home from work. JOE's real estate hodlings are delineated in a couple of these Threads. I've been wanting to break down their entitled lands and an estimate of the value of same. That will leave the rest of their real estate holdings on one side of the equation and the rest of their market cap. on the other side of the equation. We could then divide those remainders into one another to get a current assessment of what the market values that rural, undeveloped land as.
JOE has been a dog (lots of folks made money on this bubble too, but those left holding the bag are not in good shape) and continues to be a dog even at $15 per share.
They own about 600,000 acres of mostly scrubland in Florida. Over the last 24 months they have offloaded over 200,000 of these rural acres in the range of $1500 per acre.
Take the remaining 600,000 acres and generously value those acres at $2000 per acre and you come up with $1.2 billion. At the average gross margin of roughy 75%, JOE will bring home about $900 million before overhead. Strike another 10% off for overhead and JOE is left with $810 million pre tax. After tax, the company is left with $480 million. Now pay it out to shareholders as a dividend and after taxes paid by the shareholders, the shareholders are left with $300 million. Throw in the time value of money (all that land ain't going to be sold tomorrow) and you are left with $200 or less for the shareholders.
At a current market cap in excess of $1.4 billion, JOE has a long, long way to fall.
They own about 600,000 acres of mostly scrubland in Florida. Over the last 24 months they have offloaded over 200,000 of these rural acres in the range of $1500 per acre.
Take the remaining 600,000 acres and generously value those acres at $2000 per acre and you come up with $1.2 billion. At the average gross margin of roughy 75%, JOE will bring home about $900 million before overhead. Strike another 10% off for overhead and JOE is left with $810 million pre tax. After tax, the company is left with $480 million. Now pay it out to shareholders as a dividend and after taxes paid by the shareholders, the shareholders are left with $300 million. Throw in the time value of money (all that land ain't going to be sold tomorrow) and you are left with $200 or less for the shareholders.
At a current market cap in excess of $1.4 billion, JOE has a long, long way to fall.
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AAbsolute
Banned
Do you see an acquisition of JOE by another public company in the future?
I do, which pays a premium.