St. Joe misses earnings - and guides forward estimates lower

[destinsm]

Technical analysis can be befuddling- the 2 year chart shows a different relationship:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=DJ_3728&siteid=mktw&time=9&freq=1&comp=&compidx=NASDAQ%7E3291&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp

'

I am in no means relating the two during the same timeframe as you have posted... I am simply pointing out the similarity of charts during their so called "bubble" periods.

Look at the similarities of the run up, peak, and now decents, in the two different charts.

That is all I am referring to...

 

[GaltsGulch]

thanks goofer... looks like i got a bit lucky picking the intrday bottom on morning after earnings there.. better to be lucky than good.

I have to disagree with you on the builders.... I don't trust their Book Value, and I certainly think earnings estimates could not only be revised down further, they could go to zero (and below) on asset write downs for some.... I don't have NEARLY as much conviction on the short side of the builders now as I did last fall. If I were to buy some BZH or PHM right now, I would only buy them to pair them up with a group of stocks I think is still incredibly primed to have a massive pullback (SubPrime Mortgage Lenders based in California) ... where builders trade at what appears to be a fire sale 4-5 X earnings, these subprime mortgage hockers in california trade at 8-10X "earnings", most of which is coming from counting negatively amortization on Option Neg Am ARM loans as income. The two candidates that I'm considering pairing up with builders, or simply naked shorting are DSL (Downey) and FED (First Federal Financial).... my higher conviction between the two is on FED.

anyone have any other stock ideas.... other names I like here today are some recent blowups MRGE, and CMVT, both of which I think have been overdone on the downside.

would like to hear anyone's imput.

 

[goofer]

Galtsgulch
I like your idea on pairs trading. long a couple of housing stocks and short some sub-prime lenders. I kinda like buying UPS on this break. I like it because I think oil prices are close to peaking. With conservation, a natural slowdown in the use of oil on a discretionary basis ( less driving for pleasure or running to the grocery store for a pint of ice cream ), development of alternative fuels, a slowing worldwide economy and increased exploration, I think oil prices will move down in the next year. UPS is a great growth company with high barriers of entry. Decent dividend yield with fantastic growth prospects. I think Wall Street has over-reacted. I have been nibbling.

 

[Pirate]

thanks goofer... looks like i got a bit lucky picking the intrday bottom on morning after earnings there.. better to be lucky than good.

I have to disagree with you on the builders.... I don't trust their Book Value, and I certainly think earnings estimates could not only be revised down further, they could go to zero (and below) on asset write downs for some.... I don't have NEARLY as much conviction on the short side of the builders now as I did last fall. If I were to buy some BZH or PHM right now, I would only buy them to pair them up with a group of stocks I think is still incredibly primed to have a massive pullback (SubPrime Mortgage Lenders based in California) ... where builders trade at what appears to be a fire sale 4-5 X earnings, these subprime mortgage hockers in california trade at 8-10X "earnings", most of which is coming from counting negatively amortization on Option Neg Am ARM loans as income. The two candidates that I'm considering pairing up with builders, or simply naked shorting are DSL (Downey) and FED (First Federal Financial).... my higher conviction between the two is on FED.

anyone have any other stock ideas.... other names I like here today are some recent blowups MRGE, and CMVT, both of which I think have been overdone on the downside.

would like to hear anyone's imput.

If you don't trust the builders' books I don't see why you have any faith in JOEs book. Seems like they are awfully proud of the swamps.

 

[GaltsGulch]

Pirate, JOE is not comparably analyzed along the typical basket of homebuilding stocks, PHM, RYL, BZH, TLB, HVN etc, because it is quite different, not because it builds second homes primarily rather than primary res., but more particularly because it's land holdings as a percentage of assets far far far surpass the other builders as a percentage of enterprise value (or any way you want to slice it) regardless if you value their land holdings in NW FLorida at $3,000/acre or more realistic (higher) values. Take a look at the Price/Earnings mutliple on JOE vs. any of the above builders and you'll see you are dealing with a different animal. I'm done with my short on JOE, b/c I have a profit, and because it is hard to agree upon a value for their land. I'm neutral on JOE now on a trading basis, and somewhat positive for those who don't care about 15% moves in the stock but are looking to own it for the next cycle, which could be 5 or even 10 years away.


My two cents only. Feel free to disagree. Are you really bullish on JOE now, really bearish. Have you been bullish/bearish on JOE over the past two years? Any other ideas?

 

[GaltsGulch]

Galtsgulch
I like your idea on pairs trading. long a couple of housing stocks and short some sub-prime lenders. I kinda like buying UPS on this break. I like it because I think oil prices are close to peaking. With conservation, a natural slowdown in the use of oil on a discretionary basis ( less driving for pleasure or running to the grocery store for a pint of ice cream ), development of alternative fuels, a slowing worldwide economy and increased exploration, I think oil prices will move down in the next year. UPS is a great growth company with high barriers of entry. Decent dividend yield with fantastic growth prospects. I think Wall Street has over-reacted. I have been nibbling.

I don't have a strong enough view on UPS or FEDex right now to jump in, because although they've been hit a bit, I am unfortunately of the view (guess) that we're headed for a fairly subsantial consumer lead recession, which will necessarily lead to disappointment for UPS, FedEx, before we see the brighter side of what are truly extraordinarily well run companies... I think they are a value trap right now, but just my view.

I am going to jump in with ONE FOOT, on the short side of First Federal Financial at some point today (I think). I'll definitely be losing money if we're headed for a soft landing in California real estate, and if employment holds up very well. I prefer to quote the sage CEO of CountryWide Financial here, who is pulling back their horns on loans. He's been around for 52 years in the business and was quoted in yesterday's WSJ as saying "I've never seen a soft landing in the housing/mortgage business". Maybe this time will be different I suppose, but my bet/risk/guess is that this hard landing will be worst than most since it comes on the heals of an historic run up, replete with massive scale everyman speculation.

If I lose on my short bet, maybe you'll buy me a beer when I get down there next time.

 

[Pirate]

Galtsgulch

Interesting, I agree with you that JOE doesn't belong in the same basket as housing stocks and the land is the reason. I don't like the stock but I wouldn't short it anymore. My reasoning is that many investors have such low expectations in general for so many stocks that this may be close to bottom, not that it's worth what it's selling for. To be honest, for the first time in years I have been having problems picking stocks and have parked much of my $. I went ahead with a few food stocks but I doubt they will return more than a short bond or CD, every other move has been a sell. This summer I shifted from 90 percent stocks to 40 percent.

 

[destinsm]

​

St. Joe Co. lays off employees
Number yet to be released

By Billy Bruce and
Ferdie De Vega
DEMOCRAT STAFF WRITERS


http://tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060812/BUSINESS/608120312/1003

 

[Cil]

I was wondering when someone would notice the press release.
My husband (and several others in his office) got the pink slip on Friday morning.

Press Release

 

[destinsm]

I was wondering when someone would notice the press release.
My husband (and several others in his office) got the pink slip on Friday morning.

Press Release

Sorry to hear that... Just another side effect resulting from the fallout of the RE Boom...

Sad thing is that this is what gets the ball really rolling... We hyper inflated RE and everything it supports (jobs, consumerism, etc) and now that we are on the downside people will be loosing jobs, buying less things (more jobs lost), causing even more pain...

So the cyclical downward nature of the RE bust begins...