Heading for Texas maybe? SmilingJoe- I'm remembering that AccuWeather forecast you posted earlier that showed a high probability for hurricane strikes along the Texas coast this year.
TD 5 is looking better today and there is a possibility of conditions becoming more favorable for further development. It all depends on the upper level low west of it moving away from TD 5 or weakening.
GFDL is usually the most reliable but, let's hope it is wrong about this one. The models have been all over with TD 5. The good thing is that this system is moving a very good clip, whereas last year's Gulf systems just sort of decided to do a sit and spin--sucking in all of the hot and moist energy the Gulf has to offer.
The discussion this morning on Ernesto is not very comforting. Here is an excerpt from that discussion.
"ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO."