So far 88% think we have hit the bottom of the market in South Walton
Ciclismo, What is the definition of "the bottom of the market in South Walton?"
Thanks.
Busta - That is a great question. There is not a definitive "bottom" of the market. However, one can look at the trend of sales price vs number of sales transactions and basic economic principles of supply and demand to find an answer.
One quick digression before I answer the question...We are in a buyers market. By its very name it means it is fundamentally the best time to buy. Even though the opportunity to buy right now is at an all time high, buyer urgency is at an all time low.
Ironically when buyers were most excited to buy and had the most urgency to buy it was a sellers market and prices were escalating out of control...and it was perhaps one of the worst times to buy value.
Between each of these markets there is a shift. Sometimes a gradual shift and other times a shift that comes crashing down upon us.
When there is an oversupply prices begin to decrease due to lack of demand. In our market we saw the number of sales transactions drastically reduce over a several year period. We began a price correction in our market in mid 2006, 2007 and 2008. However as we all know we had several economic catastrophes that hindered a normal rebound in the housing market.
Prices continued to drop as we saw sales volume continue to slow. At some point the market shifts and the price reductions begin to stabilize and sales transactions begin to increase. In South Walton we are seeing a increased trend of sales increases year over year between 2008 and 2009.
Fundamentally the numbers are showing that our market correction is beginning a shift and stabilizing. There are buyers at the current price point of our inventory in many areas. We are reducing inventory and sales transactions are up. Look at WaterColor as an example. There is demand for product at or below $999K with 33 of the 46 homes sold to date in this price range for 2009...and sales volume is up 31% from 2008. Single family homes at or below $250K in many subdivisions are selling very strong.
Now to answer your questions on the "bottom of South Walton". This was an opinion I asked everyone. I wanted to see what people's perception of the market is. Again if this is a buyers market and no one is "buying" then the perception is that we have not hit bottom. However, we are in a buyers market and people are beginning to buy in select areas and specific price points...and thus we are seeing a shift in peoples perception that we are either approaching...close to...or at the bottom.
I beleive we still have a long tough road ahead but the shift has begun.
Many thanks for the great question.
