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TD 5- Tropical Storm Warning as far east as Destin

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beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Tropical depression five special forecast/advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al052010
2330 utc wed aug 11 2010

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the northern gulf of
mexico coast from destin florida to intracoastal city
louisiana...including lake pontchartrain and new orleans.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* destin florida to intracoastal city louisiana...including lake
pontchartrain and new orleans

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 26.0n 84.1w at 11/2330z
position accurate within 60 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.0n 84.1w at 11/2330z
at 10/1800z center was located near 25.7n 83.9w

forecast valid 11/0600z 26.8n 85.1w
max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 28.1n 87.0w
max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 12/0600z 29.0n 89.0w
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 29.7n 90.6w...inland
max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 13/1800z 31.0n 92.0w...inland
max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 14/1800z 33.0n 90.5w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.0n 84.1w

next advisory at 11/0300z

$$
forecaster pasch
 
Map shows it more towards Mississippi and Louisiana again. But again, this one is not going to amount to anything as it appears the winds won't strengthen above 45 mph and then weaken to around 30 along shore. We will be there in 2 1/2 weeks.
 
I suspect if the blob had developed in the open Atlantic that they would have left it as an invest. But for that location in the Gulf, they probably wanted to give proper warnings to the LA coast just in case it did somehow see rapid intensification. The NHC has gotten burned a couple times by storms blowing up more than they thought they would in recent years, and they probably didn't want to get second guessed if something did blow up around where oil clean-up was continuing.
 
Waves are huge right now in South Walton. Glad storm is heading west and away from us. The waves are big enough it might make Bobby linger a little longer.
 
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