This year should be a good one

[Camp Creek Kid]

Sales are already occurring at or very close to late 2003 levels. This is a fact in Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary. Prices in The Preserve are getting very close to where the original offerings were in early 2004. And, prices continue to fall with more and more sellers getting anxious and motivated to sell at ever lower prices. If trends continue, and they probably will with so much inventory in the market, we could easily see prices back to 2002 levels.

Maybe for lots, but never for homes.

 

[Bobby J]

Sales are already occurring at or very close to late 2003 levels. This is a fact in Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary. Prices in The Preserve are getting very close to where the original offerings were in early 2004. And, prices continue to fall with more and more sellers getting anxious and motivated to sell at ever lower prices. If trends continue, and they probably will with so much inventory in the market, we could easily see prices back to 2002 levels.

Specific areas are going to be in trouble but random lots that are not competing against 500 other lots will be OK.

 

[prospector]

Specific areas are going to be in trouble but random lots that are not competing against 500 other lots will be OK.

Based on your comment above, do you know anything about or have any opinion on how Cypress Dunes is doing or will do?

 

[Paula]

That is good news Bobby!! We have our house under contract at about a mid 2004 price. The house next door sold in late 2005 for almost twice as much as we're selling for now. It is hard to keep from thinking, "If only we had sold 2 years ago . . . ") But as I said before, we are happy because we've been realistic. We've also owned the home for 4 1/2 years so the only money we're losing is on paper. We'll do just fine. My GREAT realtor (go Supermom) has really worked hard to get the buyers in, but the price was realistic. Of course in 6 months we may be thinking "If only we had waited to sell."

Congrats CCK! And congrats Supermom. Your place is great and the people who bought it will feel extra lucky in a few years after they've had time to enjoy it and the market turns around. It's good that you, Supermom and the buyers all feel good about it. I'm looking forward to meeting the new neighbors. And I'm happy you're still here full-time!

 

[spinDrAtl]

Sales are already occurring at or very close to late 2003 levels. This is a fact in Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary. Prices in The Preserve are getting very close to where the original offerings were in early 2004. And, prices continue to fall with more and more sellers getting anxious and motivated to sell at ever lower prices. If trends continue, and they probably will with so much inventory in the market, we could easily see prices back to 2002 levels.

I'm sure there are some desperate sellers and some areas have tanked more than others.

I can only tell you what I have observed firsthand and here it is: July 2003 High Pointe, appraisal in the high 300's. Nothing for sale in there currently under 640k. I did receive a flyer in the mail a few months ago that one unit in there was going to auction but I don't know the results of that.

My opinion, while I won't say NEVER (nuclear war, cat 5 direct hit) is that you won't see a '3' in there again (or a 4). Time will tell.

 

[fisher]

Maybe for lots, but never for homes.

Several homes in Watercolor and Rosemary have already sold for the same price per square foot as numerous sales that occurred near those homes in 2003.

Prices in Watercolor and Rosemary in 2002 were generally running in the $300 to $400 per square foot range excluding properties on the water. It won't take much more slippage before prices hit those levels on a consistent basis.

 

[PalmBeach]

My opinion is that your predictions and some of your numbers are off. 500% runup in 7 years is not correct (not even in 8-9 years in our case), at least of the properties I know about - oceanside of 30A in the Seacrest area. 300%+ is more like it and that was pretty much peak asking prices that I saw. It may be true in some cases.

I refinanced mid 2003 and have that appraisal. IMO, buyers would snap up anything in our area at those levels, probably before it got there. 2002 pricing is not even in a reasonable discussion, again IMO, as I believe the floor would be set a long time before we got there.

You are correct. There was no 500% runup.

This area was extremely undervalued compared to other coastal areas in the state. Some of which are not as nice. 2004 simply was an adjustment to become competitive with these other areas. 2005 is where we saw the inflation caused by speculators who saw the adjustment, didn't understand it, and assumed that it would continue indefinately. Or they thought that there would be a gradual slowdown of appreciation that would let them reduce prices of their inflated listings. This is typically what happens at the end of natural adjustment periods. But this time the appreciation stopped abruptly due to the storms. More accurately, the media over-exposure of the storms.

The good news is that a large percentage of Sowal investors can hold until the current market adjustment is over. Their listings are still over-priced and they are not motivated to sell.

2007 should see a relatively high volume of sales activity, but it will be the investors without holding power that will be dumping. A good time to buy for long term investment. After the "desperate" sellers have sold, buyers will have to deal with sellers that are not willing to take a loss on their investment. That is when the market should turn around with an eventual increase back to 2004 levels, which will be competitive with other resort areas. Hopefully this will take place in 2008 or 2009 with the Bay County Airport fueling the fire in 2009.

These are my opinions based on my observation of many markets throughout the state over many years.:clap_1:

 

[TooFarTampa]

You are correct. There was no 500% runup.

This area was extremely undervalued compared to other coastal areas in the state. Some of which are not as nice. 2004 simply was an adjustment to become competitive with these other areas. 2005 is where we saw the inflation caused by speculators who saw the adjustment, didn't understand it, and assumed that it would continue indefinately. Or they thought that there would be a gradual slowdown of appreciation that would let them reduce prices of their inflated listings. This is typically what happens at the end of natural adjustment periods. But this time the appreciation stopped abruptly due to the storms. More accurately, the media over-exposure of the storms.

The good news is that a large percentage of Sowal investors can hold until the current market adjustment is over. Their listings are still over-priced and they are not motivated to sell.

2007 should see a relatively high volume of sales activity, but it will be the investors without holding power that will be dumping. A good time to buy for long term investment. After the "desperate" sellers have sold, buyers will have to deal with sellers that are not willing to take a loss on their investment. That is when the market should turn around with an eventual increase back to 2004 levels, which will be competitive with other resort areas. Hopefully this will take place in 2008 or 2009 with the Bay County Airport fueling the fire in 2009.

These are my opinions based on my observation of many markets throughout the state over many years.:clap_1:

PalmBeach I agree with you wholeheartedly. I have said before and will say again that on our first trip to SoWal in 2003, I was astounded by the prices in SoWal compared to the other Florida markets. I agree that a large portion of the rapid appreciation was abolutely justified because the area was being "discovered." Once the prices began to approach those of the other more popular and (also) beautiful Florida resort areas, I became alarmed because truth be told, we don't have the the year-round amenities or airport yet.

Once the airport is in and development stablizes and services improve (which might be the biggest challenge), watch out. :shock: An accessible SoWal is going to be in demand by many visitors who would never have come before, and prices will rise accordingly.

The only caveat to recovery, other than the large amount of inventory, is whether the entire Florida coastal real estate market is overvalued by a large margin. If so it will be a long ride down for everybody. I'm not sure that's going to happen now ... the Legislature is obviously willing to make HUGE changes to the taxes and insurance laws to keep the state from an economic meltdown. Positive changes will only help SoWal.

 

[Buckhead Rick]

Not that we know anything about real estate but Smith Barney today went to an over weight in equities almost solely because the investment committee feels the real estate market has bottomed out nationally which will be good for the economy, of course every local market will differ greatly.
But every little bit helps.

 

[Santiago]

Wouldn't a Super WalMart require approval by the county commission? Can't remove trees until they do that, right?

They can remove trees on any of their property because they are operating a tree farm