What's up with the market in the grayton beach area

[Jellyfish]

In general, despite the effects of rising interest rates and a softening real estate market, David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist said that, ?sales remain strong and are providing a solid underlying base for the overall economy?. In fact, the latest economic outlook from NAR suggests that 2006 may yet turn out to be the third best year on record.

I read this guy's book. He's employed by the NAR which obviously has a very large desire to keep people buying. Surprised university research would include quotes from parites that I would have a hard time calling impartial.

 

[billyjoe]

Thanks for all the replies. I've been lurking and reading everyones opinions on the market. I also went back and looked at many, many posts over the last year or so. A person named Smiling Joe has posted lots of good data. I especially took note of the real trend reports. Based on the comments of many and looking at the data from Joe, I think I will hold off a good while before putting big dollars into the market. From looking at some of the reports from Joe, it appears to me that the average year to date prices in July 2006 for a home in Walton County are down by over 40% from a year to date average in August 2005 and the average price of a lot year to date in July 2006 is down almost 40% versus the average year to date prices in August 2004. From looking at Joe's real trend reports for each month of 2006, it looks like the downward trend has not stopped. Not time for me to put hard earned savings into property even if I want to hold it long term. I don't like to start off with any investment in the hole. Renting for a while until things settle down is not such a bad deal.

Thanks again for all the input, and the data on this forum is great. Also, the private message from a realtor also was helpful. It really helped me get a better understanding of what's going on in the market.

 

[BlueMtnBeachVagrant]

...... From looking at some of the reports from Joe, it appears to me that the average year to date prices in July 2006 for a home in Walton County are down by over 40% from a year to date average in August 2005.

According to the Davis Properties in a link on this thread...

YTD August 2005, 2006:
Single Family Homes - down .8 %
Condos - down 30.1 %

Wouldn't the average for the above fall considerably less than the 40% decline that you've stated? For clarification, I'm referring to actual sales price, not asking price.

......and the average price of a lot year to date in July 2006 is down almost 40% versus the average year to date prices in August 2004.

According to Davis Properties:
Residential Land - down 11.8 %

This also appears to be significantly less than than the 40% you've stated for land. I understand you said from 2004, not 2005. But I'll take a SWAG and say that all price drop occurred from 2005 to 2006.

Not too many people can predict (accurately) where things will go from here. I do believe we're in for continued correction simply from the basic numbers based on supply and demand (Months of Supply = number of properties divided by number of properties sold each month) as clearly pointed out by Destinsm.

However, I do see a lot of properties on the market in our area where the sellers are "wishful thinkers". They are still asking almost "pre-Dennis prices". I can't figure out why they even bother. It just makes it appear that there's a distress sale going on with all the signs out there and no offers coming in. Oh yea, I guess there is a distress sale going on!! ;-) I suggest they either get realistic with their asking prices or take the property off the market.

billyjoe, as Cork on the Ocean said (and I agree)...
"It's clear that it's a buyer's market. If you want a place, throw out offers with a good negotiator and somebody will bite at a below market price. They've been doing it all summer. "

Good luck and thanks to everyone on this thread for all the info.

 

[Chickpea]

Many people on this board know our story - moved here about 3 years ago and had a heart attack at asking prices for SFH. Decided to rent and were happy at plethora of choices we had for long term leases - had to move twice in 18 months because houses sold and rent was raised by over 75%. We have 2 kids, no pets and it was a hassle.

Like many people we kick ourselves weekly for not having bought in early 2004, and also like many people we had no idea of what real estate was going to do (crazy double digit appreciation) and now some asking prices free falling (at least seemingly).

Because we are here for the long term, we finally decided to buy a house in 2005. Have we seen its value appreciate 30-50%? No - have we seen it tumble even 20%? No - it could go either way - no-one has a crystal ball. For us it was all about our enjoyment of our house, we got sick of burning money on rent - yes, we have the same hassles everyone else has with insurance and all else BUT we hope to see modest gains in the next 3-5 years. If we do GREAT _ FANTASTIC - and if we do not, well we will have lived in a slice of paradise for a while and will be grateful for that.

Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in real estate - but the one constant that rarely changes is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. As long as Sowal continues to be a desirable place for people to live - as long as services improve, in the whole - this place will do OK in the long run. My 0.2 cents worth!

 

[Bobby J]

Many people on this board know our story - moved here about 3 years ago and had a heart attack at asking prices for SFH. Decided to rent and were happy at plethora of choices we had for long term leases - had to move twice in 18 months because houses sold and rent was raised by over 75%. We have 2 kids, no pets and it was a hassle.

Like many people we kick ourselves weekly for not having bought in early 2004, and also like many people we had no idea of what real estate was going to do (crazy double digit appreciation) and now some asking prices free falling (at least seemingly).

Because we are here for the long term, we finally decided to buy a house in 2005. Have we seen its value appreciate 30-50%? No - have we seen it tumble even 20%? No - it could go either way - no-one has a crystal ball. For us it was all about our enjoyment of our house, we got sick of burning money on rent - yes, we have the same hassles everyone else has with insurance and all else BUT we hope to see modest gains in the next 3-5 years. If we do GREAT _ FANTASTIC - and if we do not, well we will have lived in a slice of paradise for a while and will be grateful for that.

Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in real estate - but the one constant that rarely changes is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. As long as Sowal continues to be a desirable place for people to live - as long as services improve, in the whole - this place will do OK in the long run. My 0.2 cents worth!

Very well put ChickPea! Peice of mind and Paradise are hard things to put price tags on!

 

[Jellyfish]

I remember when (not too long ago), vacation homes were bought with enjoyment in mind, with a reasonable DP, good credit and a fixed rate loan, not as a short term "investment". IMO were getting back to that. BTW, buyers waiting since "it'll be cheaper next year" is exactly what happens in a deflationary environment. We're in the standoff phase between buyers and sellers, prices will move down quite a bit when they are priced to sell and not at an aspiration price.

I have a friend selling a home on the West Coast; his realtor was not willing to relist for another 90 days unless the price was dropped significantly. He also heard the agents were getting pretty firm direction from the managers to try and get sellers to list at realistic prices to get some sales moving. They were wallking away from aspirational listings.

 

[Bobby J]

I have a friend selling a home on the West Coast; his realtor was not willing to relist for another 90 days unless the price was dropped significantly. He also heard the agents were getting pretty firm direction from the managers to try and get sellers to list at realistic prices to get some sales moving. They were wallking away from aspirational listings.[/QUOTE]

Same thing is going on here. I turn away from 2-4 listings a week because the seller is not willing to get real.