WSJ article (07 Dec 2005)

[Santiago]

Are most poeple in the SoWal area, (not PCB or Destin), buying for specualtion or a long term investment/enjoyment? I'd say for the most part the latter. That's the reason I believe this area is a bit more immune to the downturn/glut that will occur in PCB, Daytona Beach markets etc.

During this frenzy in the last 12 to 24 months, when a new development of lots hit the market, I would guess that a large majority were sold to investors. You don't put 100 lots on the market and reserve all in 48 hours and have very many end users in the mix. The same could probably be said for condos.

 

[monty]

During this frenzy in the last 12 to 24 months, when a new development of lots hit the market, I would guess that a large majority were sold to investors. You don't put 100 lots on the market and reserve all in 48 hours and have very many end users in the mix. The same could probably be said for condos.

Agreed. I think a huge chunk of the buyers over the last 2 years have been investors. We have been looking to buy property in one of the upscale developments like Rosemary, Watersound or Watercolor (Alys is just too different, too white and too dense) but will not buy until prices fall dramatically. We thought we had missed the boat last summer (2004), but with hindsight we are thrilled that we didn't plunk any money down during the last 12 months.

There are lots of opinions on these boards, but my money is riding on the folks that believe there is a big bubble that is already in the process of bursting. We have been watching the sales activity and prices in the big developments. My agent says that sales in these developments are off by 50 to 75% for the period July-Nov 2005 versus the same period in 2004. Prices on lots are falling fast and the few lots that have sold recently have sold at prices well below prices paid last summer. Recent house sales have also been at prices below prices last summer (2004). I am going to wait for supply and demand to begin looking normal again before putting cash into a new beach home. Until this equilibrium is reached, prices will be headed down.

The area is beautiful and has tons of appeal. But, those attributes will not stop falling prices. The market will dictate the value of these properties, not the beautiful surroundings.

 

[Buckhead Rick]

Front page, NY Times travel section 12-10-05 on Seaside (with 3/4 page picture of a walkover), gist: the major problem with Seaside is "not enough parking". That's like having too many people in your retail store.

 

[ecopal]

to monty:
If you are ready to build within about 18 months you can pick up incredible deals. The big price drops on vacant property appear to be primarily for lots with a build out time. The closer the build out dead line the faster the price drop. I have seen this in Cyprus Dune, Watersound, Watercolor, and The Preserve at Grayton just to mention a few. The "investor flippers" that bought these build out time lots get more motivated every day. One seller was so desperate they actually tried to market it on ebay.

 

[SHELLY]

Are most poeple in the SoWal area, (not PCB or Destin), buying for specualtion or a long term investment/enjoyment? I'd say for the most part the latter.

I'd say a lot of people in SoWal still are in on the speculation of these condos/land grabs. Over the last couple years, the pied pipers (developers/realtors) skipped merrily through the hamlets of SoWal drawing crowds of villagers to their condo/land grab roadshows with a siren song of quick, easy money. Certainly no one reading this board has more than they should tied up in these gems (yeah, right)--but those out there who do are now starting to realize the folly of their "investment."

 

[monty]

to monty:
If you are ready to build within about 18 months you can pick up incredible deals. The big price drops on vacant property appear to be primarily for lots with a build out time. The closer the build out dead line the faster the price drop. I have seen this in Cyprus Dune, Watersound, Watercolor, and The Preserve at Grayton just to mention a few. The "investor flippers" that bought these build out time lots get more motivated every day. One seller was so desperate they actually tried to market it on ebay.

You forgot to mention the Watercolor lots that went up for auction last weekend. But, remember that these mega developments are what caused the huge runup in prices over the last few years. As prices fall in these communities, it will drag down the rest of market. And, as lot prices fall so will the prices for the homes. The so called incredible deals won't look very incredible 12 months from now. Prices will be even lower then.

 

[ecopal]

to monty:

So you would not buy anything now?
How much lower do you predict prices will be in a year?
Have you heard how those auctions worked out-did anyone show up ?

 

[kirstenOn30A]

You forgot to mention the Watercolor lots that went up for auction last weekend. But, remember that these mega developments are what caused the huge runup in prices over the last few years. As prices fall in these communities, it will drag down the rest of market. And, as lot prices fall so will the prices for the homes. The so called incredible deals won't look very incredible 12 months from now. Prices will be even lower then.

So, does anyone know what the watercolor lots went for in the auction? And were they were located. I know that they have been having some problems selling the new phase over by the publics. I would love to find out. As far as build out dates are concerned how much of a house has to be completed prior to the build out date. The entire house? Or can you get blue prints and start laying fondation?

 

[kirstenOn30A]

i also want to remind people that markets tend to move in cycles. The go up and then they go down. The people sitting around waiting for the market to bottom out will be stuck with a ton of cash in the hands when the markets starts climbing again. No doubt deals will contiue to take place in the future but you may miss out on something really great that is happening right now. People will contiue to want to live here, there is a supply problem with BEAUTIFUL white beach font properity in areas where it has not been comletely eaten up by people. Areas like Napels, Boca Raton, Miami, also went through situations where prior to becomming huge and amazingly expensive, they titter toddered. The major investers that are putting millions of dollars into development, are not going to just let it die here. I think we are one summer away from major maketing explosion. Remember the glass can be half empty or half full.

 

[Smiling JOe]

The properties that were to be auctioned last Sat.

• St. Barth #904 at Silver Shells
• Century Park West #407
• 705 Forest St
• Destin Pointe Lot 31
• Watercolors Lot 16
• Watercolors Lot 19
• Cypress Dunes Lot 74

Ben Anderson was to hold the auction. His site does not have the selling info.. Contact him to find out if they sold.

Anderson Real Estate Auctions
Ben Anderson 850-654-5300, Cell 850-865-5300
12273 Emerald Coast Pkwy, Suite 117, Destin, FL 32550