Current inventory and sales forecast - December 2007

[fisher]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Shelly,

I'm not saying that price decreases won't continue into next year. I think several areas are still overpriced, but I believe sales will rise overall. There are a lot of GREAT deals out there at this time. If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy! I know several properties that you couldn't reproduce for the sales price. I think you have to be near the bottom when that's happening. I don't see another boom by any means, but I think we will see increases in sales for the next several years to come and increasing prices soon enough. All of this is my personal opinion from studying the market Shelly.

Josh, your cost to reproduce assumes that building costs stay put or rise in the future. With the quickly slackening pace of new construction, the price of commodities like lumber, concrete, etc is likely to fall meaning construction costs will be falling (in fact, builders I know say it is already occurring). In addition, builders will be competing more with each other as people build fewer homes. Building a new home will become cheaper, not more expensive, over the next year or two.

 

[fisher]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!

What type of sales are you talking about, new homes, resales home, new condos, resale condos, lots or all of the above?

For all of Walton County, SFH sales are down 12% year to date, condo sales are down 8% and lot sales are down 42%.

What's the similar breakdown for Destin-Inlet Beach (also, can you factor out precon condo closings)?

 

[scooterbug44]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh, your cost to reproduce assumes that building costs stay put or rise in the future. With the quickly slackening pace of new construction, the price of commodities like lumber, concrete, etc is likely to fall meaning construction costs will be falling (in fact, builders I know say it is already occurring). In addition, builders will be competing more with each other as people build fewer homes. Building a new home will become cheaper, not more expensive, over the next year or two.

Building prices are definitely going down - by more than $100 a sqr ft. from a year ago. IMO the building and real estate industry are getting a much needed reality check. Competition will hopefully readjust prices more in line w/ reality and winnow out the less skilled and less honest.

 

[GTSViper]

I live here but also have property in Nashville. There are actually some better deals here right now than there are in Nashville. The realistic prices here are lower than Nashville. You can also get a long term lease here cheaper than Nashville.
This should tell us one of two things.
A. Prices are much more realistic and more in line now than the past three years.
or
B. Nashville's prices are more inflated than here. (I dont think so)

 

[elgordoboy]

IMO the number of SJ's posts and the amount of time he Sowals are noone's business but his.

Do you think vacant lot prices will continue to fall?

It's a public message board not a sexual identity--number of posts bears comment if someone wishes to make that comment. SJ answered well. Beyond the number of his posts I have been more amazed by the content/quality of many of them. He appears one constructively active person.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks for the kind words. Many of my posts may be nothing more than a smiley, and every picture counts as a post. I wish that I could post more photos for you peeps who do not get to live here year round. With my slow internet, let's just say that it is hard work doing so.

Back to the topic at hand. I hear several people talking about construction costs decreasing and builders getting more competitive. While I agree that I have seen construction costs decrease over the last year or two, I am wondering what the international demand will have on supplies which we use. Perhaps a supplier or a builder has some inside knowledge of this and will share it. Also, regarding the General Contractors, I know that times are tough for these guys right now, and I hope that they can survive through this difficult time. I've seen many pull up their stakes and move on. Many were never really "local" builders in the first place, so moving on wasn't too difficult a decision. Just like with the local Realtors, I think we will see many Gen. Contractors move on in the future, leaving a decent earning up for grabs for the remaining few. I think they will be more competitive, but they won't work for free.

 

[Bob]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh, your cost to reproduce assumes that building costs stay put or rise in the future. With the quickly slackening pace of new construction, the price of commodities like lumber, concrete, etc is likely to fall meaning construction costs will be falling (in fact, builders I know say it is already occurring). In addition, builders will be competing more with each other as people build fewer homes. Building a new home will become cheaper, not more expensive, over the next year or two.

I believe building codes may mitigate that somewhat.

 

[Mango]

Joe,

So how long will it take to pay back a $500,000 (2/28) loan if the first 2 years were "interest only" payments and then next 5 years it is fixed at 3.5%? And what would the suits at "Now's a Great Time to Buy Hedge Fund" do when their promised 11% bond didn't pay out as planned?
.

3.5% . I don't think the proposal includes keeping someones' rate at the teaser, and I have never seen a subprime loan priced that low or even a prime for that matter. IMO with a foreclosure costing an average of 50K, that will downgraded the security anyway. Better to get some income on performing loans than none. The real question is how long to allow the fixed term period? Clinton is proposing 5 years (the highest) which I think may be a reasonable time period. Others are pushing for 2 years or so.

 

[Smiling JOe]

I, too, heard that Congress was considering trying to manipulate the mortgages and fix the rates at the teaser rates. In particular, I thought I heard Hiltlery's name being the pusher.

 

[Joe Mammy]

Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Joe,

So how long will it take to pay back a $500,000 (2/28) loan if the first 2 years were "interest only" payments and then next 5 years it is fixed at 3.5%? And what would the suits at "Now's a Great Time to Buy Hedge Fund" do when their promised 11% bond didn't pay out as planned?


.

Looks like we'll get some answers today at 1:45.

"Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's success in crafting agreement on a five-year fix of subprime mortgage rates owes a debt to an unlikely source: congressional Democrats.

Legislation pushed by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank that would bypass lenders and investors, giving power to judges to rewrite loans, helped persuade banks and securities-industry lobbyists to sign on to Paulson's effort, mortgage-industry analysts said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aAsVymCNU7go&refer=us

This could give new meaning to "here come the judge!"

What about the prudent folks who financed at a 15 or 30 year fixed? Their properties have still declined in value and if they bought in 2004-6 cannot sell without writing a check- in some cases a big check! Their property taxes and insurance rates have increased raising their payments but they will receive no cherries from the gov't.