Time for some to drop out...

[idlewind]

I'm not sure I quite agree with that analysis. In fact I am considering a flip flop in honor of Mr. Obama and declare that ralph may indeed have a slight chance to win this thing. May God have mercy on us all if that comes to pass. No, I cannot let myself think such horrible thoughts........LOL

 

[Johnny Post]

ShallowsNole, try helping me understand again, if you will. So far, I still say most support equals most votes, or visa versa. Besides, if so, so "many" people were against Sheriff Johnson, how is that he still received the most votes? How come McMillian or Chapman did not receive the most votes, or Mr. Baker? What happened with the November election with Mr. McKee? Where were all those people who were "against" Sheriff Johnson then? I really need some help understanding all this dillution mess.

I'm waiting. Anyone else?

Let me give this one a shot. Two things first -

1) Support and votes are related, but do not necessarily mean the same thing. A candidate with a lot of support may fail to collect votes because those same supporters take the race for granted. It happens very often when a primary is one in a lopsided outcome, and the winner does not garner the same support in the general election due to the belief the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

2) 2004 general election - Walton County Republicans carry a big advantage over Democrats. Unfortunately, in 2004, Mr. McKee was on the wrong side of the partisan divide. While numerous people voted against Johnson, those same people may have felt a stronger urge to vote republican than to vote against Johnson. Likewise, the other candidates may not have been successful in throwing support to Mr. McKee. And don't forget the fact that many associated McMillian, Chapman, and McKee as "good ol boys", who did not need to get back in office.

Now, after my typical long-winded intro, to address the "dilution" issue.

If this was an "Issue" election, i.e. voting on a constitutional amendment, you are spot-on with your analysis. One vote is always one vote, and the top vote-getter will win. It works that way regardless of plurality or majority elections. This election presents a different situation.

Here, we are dealing with individuals running. Now, I will agree that your points work when its a matter of electing the best person or in an open seat scenario. The election for sheriff seems to come down to a desire to unseat the sheriff. If this was a "recall" election, we can guess the outcome very easily. But when you have multiple candidates on the "remove Ralph" side of the issue, and only Ralph on the other, the vote to get Ralph out gets diluted. Eighty percent of the county could conceivably vote for someone other than Johnson, but if that 80% is split in a way that none of the remaining take more than 20%, Johnson gets re-elected.

Simple math tells you 7 candidates splitting 80% means approximately 11-12% each. Logic tells you some will do better, some will do worse. That same logic is what many, including myself, believe requires some to reevaluate where their campaign stands, and for voters to try to back a consensus candidate.

Vote Ralph Out - great idea, but hard to do when you have seven options claiming to do the same thing.

 

[5th Gen Local]

Let me give this one a shot. Two things first -

1) Support and votes are related, but do not necessarily mean the same thing. A candidate with a lot of support may fail to collect votes because those same supporters take the race for granted. It happens very often when a primary is one in a lopsided outcome, and the winner does not garner the same support in the general election due to the belief the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

2) 2004 general election - Walton County Republicans carry a big advantage over Democrats. Unfortunately, in 2004, Mr. McKee was on the wrong side of the partisan divide. While numerous people voted against Johnson, those same people may have felt a stronger urge to vote republican than to vote against Johnson. Likewise, the other candidates may not have been successful in throwing support to Mr. McKee. And don't forget the fact that many associated McMillian, Chapman, and McKee as "good ol boys", who did not need to get back in office.

Now, after my typical long-winded intro, to address the "dilution" issue.

If this was an "Issue" election, i.e. voting on a constitutional amendment, you are spot-on with your analysis. One vote is always one vote, and the top vote-getter will win. It works that way regardless of plurality or majority elections. This election presents a different situation.

Here, we are dealing with individuals running. Now, I will agree that your points work when its a matter of electing the best person or in an open seat scenario. The election for sheriff seems to come down to a desire to unseat the sheriff. If this was a "recall" election, we can guess the outcome very easily. But when you have multiple candidates on the "remove Ralph" side of the issue, and only Ralph on the other, the vote to get Ralph out gets diluted. Eighty percent of the county could conceivably vote for someone other than Johnson, but if that 80% is split in a way that none of the remaining take more than 20%, Johnson gets re-elected.

Simple math tells you 7 candidates splitting 80% means approximately 11-12% each. Logic tells you some will do better, some will do worse. That same logic is what many, including myself, believe requires some to reevaluate where their campaign stands, and for voters to try to back a consensus candidate.

Vote Ralph Out - great idea, but hard to do when you have seven options claiming to do the same thing.

You nailed it!!! Mike, Tom and Tony...it is time to get in a room. Plenty of white shirts to go around and the trio would make a hell of a combination. Timing is everything and if everyone will honestly evaluate the current situation (finances, support, momentum) the best option for a win is clear. Think about the greater good!

 

[The Watcher]

I like it.

You nailed it!!! Mike, Tom and Tony...it is time to get in a room. Plenty of white shirts to go around and the trio would make a hell of a combination. Timing is everything and if everyone will honestly evaluate the current situation (finances, support, momentum) the best option for a win is clear. Think about the greater good!

I like your thinking here. Unfortunately, I wish others would have seen the light months ago. Walton County always looks foolish with all of our "candidate" running against each other. Where else do you see seven republican candidates all running for the same thing? This has become a pattern.

As it relates to the finances, we need to get a much more accurate picture of the candidates funding. The past two articles I have read are far off on the $$$ for at least two of the candidates listed.

 

[Smiling JOe]

When the salary for an office is greater than $100,000, I'm surprised that we don't see more strange things in the races.

 

[Johnny Post]

You nailed it!!! Mike, Tom and Tony...it is time to get in a room. Plenty of white shirts to go around and the trio would make a hell of a combination. Timing is everything and if everyone will honestly evaluate the current situation (finances, support, momentum) the best option for a win is clear. Think about the greater good!

Thanks, and I agree that the candidates sitting down sounds like a good plan. Only thing I wonder about is the legality of candidates themselves sitting down. I thought Florida had pretty harsh "electioneering"/election-rigging rules that may hinder this. Anyone out there got an answer?

If that is a problem, then maybe some of those out there who are close to these candidates could help broker some solution.

 

[idlewind]

It seems the only people continuing this drumbeat for everyone else to get out are supporters of Mr. Adkinson. Why? could it be that you are unsure of whether you can win a fair election? I am getting real tired of hearing this stuff. If Mr. Adkinson is so convinced that someone should pull out to keep RJ from getting reelected, THEN PULL OUT HIMSELF! I am tired of hearing it, I encourage all the candidates to tell me why you are the best man for the job and shut up about everybody elses campaign. Further, is is illegal to promise someone a job for political gain. Also, if you think Walton County is unique, Wahington county has 6-7 candidates for sheriff, Holmes County has 5, Jacskon county has 7-8. and historically our own district 5 commission seat attracts 4-5 candidates per election.

 

[Johnny Post]

While I agree that many Adkinson supporters are calling for others to drop out, I would say that it is far from being only his supporters.

Honestly, I doubt Mr. Cornman or Mr. Cooper would mind seeing any member of the rest of the field drop out. And I have heard many of their supporters advancing this same idea.

If we want to see four more years of Johnson, go ahead, complain about this issue. If you want to elect a new sheriff get out and support a candidate with a legitimate chance, not just a snowflake's chance in hell. And let me be clear - I am not saying the only candidate with a legitimate chance is Adkinson. But there are at least 3 other candidates in this race with no chance of winning.

With all that said, I myself believe the BEST chance to unseat Johnson lies with Mr. Adkinson. So if you want to discount my opinion because I am going to vote for a person who I think will do a good job, and who I think has the best chance to win, then so be it. But people need to realize that this is a great opportunity to unseat Johnson. Whoever you support, get out and work for it. But be real about the chances to beat Johnson, its going to take a really strong candidate, and not all of this field can claim that. Mr. Adkinson can.

 

[idlewind]

While I agree that many Adkinson supporters are calling for others to drop out, I would say that it is far from being only his supporters.

Honestly, I doubt Mr. Cornman or Mr. Cooper would mind seeing any member of the rest of the field drop out. And I have heard many of their supporters advancing this same idea.

If we want to see four more years of Johnson, go ahead, complain about this issue. If you want to elect a new sheriff get out and support a candidate with a legitimate chance, not just a snowflake's chance in hell. And let me be clear - I am not saying the only candidate with a legitimate chance is Adkinson. But there are at least 3 other candidates in this race with no chance of winning.

With all that said, I myself believe the BEST chance to unseat Johnson lies with Mr. Adkinson. So if you want to discount my opinion because I am going to vote for a person who I think will do a good job, and who I think has the best chance to win, then so be it. But people need to realize that this is a great opportunity to unseat Johnson. Whoever you support, get out and work for it. But be real about the chances to beat Johnson, its going to take a really strong candidate, and not all of this field can claim that. Mr. Adkinson can.

I totally agree my friend that three candidates have no chance of winning (Mr's Brown, Macon and Wise) and that the primary objective should be to get Johnson out. But at this time I think Mr. Cooper has at least as good a chance of being elected as Mr. Adkinson and he probably is ahead. Mr. Cornman seems to have a great deal of support as well. I continue to hear negatives about Mr. Adkinson that concern me including a little smoke I read this morning that concerns how ole RJ found out about the Hatch Act. Those types of things smack of good ole boy politics and I have no use for them. :angry: I have not heard anthing like that about either Cooper or Cornman but am willing to listen. That is just my point, I agree with Mr, Cooper in the paper this morning that the candidates are to market themselves to the voter and we are to carefully choose the best candidate. As I have previously stated, at present I have only personally decided two races Mr. Davis' and Mr, Jones'. I have almost decided (maybe 90%) on Ms. Anderson. All the rest need to get to marketing.

 

[DFSboy]

When the salary for an office is greater than $100,000, I'm surprised that we don't see more strange things in the races.

SmilingJoe,

Is Mark Davis a Republican?