Crist?s current level of support, as measured by polling, in a three-way race is artificially high, while support for Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek is artificially low.
According to both internal and public polling data, Crist is drawing support from a significant number of Democrats and approximately 25-33 percent of Republicans. In some current surveys, Crist actually beats Meek among Democrats. These numbers are based almost entirely on name ID, and as the race develops further they will change dramatically. For starters, there is very little chance Crist maintains his current level of GOP support. To quote Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com:
?It?s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party ? particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve.?
Additionally, Meek is still largely unknown, even by Democrats. But he is a credible candidate with access to a significant financial war chest. As he becomes better known there is every reason to assume that the overwhelming majority of Democrats will come home and support him.
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