Jan Metro Mkt #'s

[Chickpea]

;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!

Plenty of great plans to chose from. Good luck.

 

[redfisher]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

 

[Bob]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

redfisher, tell me more about rate cuts for 07. Short term/long term, what are you reading???

 

[elliedog]

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

 

[Kurt]

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

It depends if you are for or against sales, and your timeline. If you're all for sales, then the numbers probably look pretty good compared to 2000. If you're only worried about what happens in a 12-month period then you might not like the change.

 

[elliedog]

The numbers from year to year are what they are. We need realistic disscussion. Don't kill the messager. I have a very significant interest in SoWal's success too.

 

[Cork On the Ocean]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

Redfisher, My use of the bottom was colloquial. Will rephrase. We were riding high and the rug got pulled out.

Prices have not dropped. List Prices have dropped. When I saw homes sell for $640K in May 2004 , resell for $850 in Sept 2004 and then relist for $1.2 million in January 2005, I laughed. If someone paid that ridiculous price, they made the seller's pipe dream come true. We saw those ridiculous list prices start to drop when people refused to pay it during the summer of 2005. Then when the more realistically priced homes started selling, of course they paid less than the people who made poor decisions.

The facts are that the average sold price in Jan 2006 is significantly higher than the average sold price in Jan 2005. When people stopped buying, the number of sold transactions decreased for DSF's by 75% yet the total sales dollars only decreased by 60% which means the average price of sold homes in 2006 were higher, 64% higher! The same is true for condos and land on 30A over the timeframe but to a lesser extent.

This area is now being bought by the wealthy who can afford to pay whatever they want. There are plenty of them out there. Will the number of transactions decrease again but I guess that could be expected as the pool of eligible buyers decrease. My personal belief is that if I sit tight for a while, these wealthy buyers will bring the values of my property up even more than it is already.

 

[redfisher]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

 

[Bob]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

who's your rate guru redfisher????

 

[redfisher]

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Red