meeting about proprty taxes - 1/31/07

[pgurney]

Shelly, I have a feeling that you're one of those folks that talk about all their successes in investing, while leaving out the....ummmmm....less than successful investments.

Your "black or white and only negative" comments here are getting old.

Try touting something positive. Since you seem to know everything about investing, what should people invest in today Shelly? It's kind of like you tried to a year or so ago. "Buy precious metals". When you did that they were twice the price you could have bought at five years ago - when people said it was a bad investment. Five years ago, people laughed at buying precious metals, but you don't seem to acknowledge this.

I'm thinking that yes you called the market downturn - any thinking individual could see it coming - just not the timing of it. But I'm also thinking that you'll never be able to call the bottom because you're so negative on everything related to this market.

This is my call: As right as you were (and many were in seeing it coming) in saying the real estate market was going down, you'll never call the bottom - the market will pick up before you ever expect it will.

 

[fisher]

Shelly, I have a feeling that you're one of those folks that talk about all their successes in investing, while leaving out the....ummmmm....less than successful investments.

Your "black or white and only negative" comments here are getting old.

Try touting something positive. Since you seem to know everything about investing, what should people invest in today Shelly? It's kind of like you tried to a year or so ago. "Buy precious metals". When you did that they were twice the price you could have bought at five years ago - when people said it was a bad investment. Five years ago, people laughed at buying precious metals, but you don't seem to acknowledge this.

I'm thinking that yes you called the market downturn - any thinking individual could see it coming - just not the timing of it. But I'm also thinking that you'll never be able to call the bottom because you're so negative on everything related to this market.

This is my call: As right as you were (and many were in seeing it coming) in saying the real estate market was going down, you'll never call the bottom - the market will pick up before you ever expect it will.

I believe some, including Shelly, will see the bottom before most (it ain't here yet). Just like they saw the downturn before most. I disagree with you about most people seeing the downturn coming. Do some research from 2005 (including old posts on this forum) and you will see mostly bulls touting the continued runup in real estate and just a few bears saying the end was upon us. It took until the market was in a free fall before most of the bulls were able to see the writing on the wall.

 

[pgurney]

I believe some, including Shelly, will see the bottom before most (it ain't here yet). Just like they saw the downturn before most. I disagree with you about most people seeing the downturn coming. Do some research from 2005 (including old posts on this forum) and you will see mostly bulls touting the continued runup in real estate and just a few bears saying the end was upon us. It took until the market was in a free fall before most of the bulls were able to see the writing on the wall.

That's a fair assessment, but I disagree. Any thinking person saw what was coming, but nobody could determine the timing. Some (maybe a lot) of people took the bet that they could beat the timing, but I'm of the opinion they saw it coming. Those that got out in time won, those that didn't - well it will all depend on their staying power.

I'm editing to add a PS:

Shelly will never see the bottom, unless it's aftersight (is that a word). Markets change without foreknowledge. Given shelly's negativity towards this market, it is IMPOSSIBLE for shelly to foresee it. One can't be everything in every market. Shelly has already shown itself to be years late in the precious metals market.

 

[TooFarTampa]

I believe some, including Shelly, will see the bottom before most (it ain't here yet). Just like they saw the downturn before most. I disagree with you about most people seeing the downturn coming. Do some research from 2005 (including old posts on this forum) and you will see mostly bulls touting the continued runup in real estate and just a few bears saying the end was upon us. It took until the market was in a free fall before most of the bulls were able to see the writing on the wall.

Fisher=Skier?

New hobby perhaps?

 

[SHELLY]

Shelly, I have a feeling that you're one of those folks that talk about all their successes in investing, while leaving out the....ummmmm....less than successful investments.

Quite the contrary--I'm not one to talk about all my successes in investing...I think people who do that are wearisome. (i.e., like the crap-talk over cocktails that went on during the tech run-up and the dot.condo grab)

Since you seem to know everything about investing, what should people invest in today Shelly?

(1) Diversify, diversify, diversify
(2) Invest more in "experiences" and less in "things" ... unless, of course, your life-long goal is to be the "Richest Person in the Graveyard"

It's kind of like you tried to a year or so ago. "Buy precious metals".

Someone asked me where the RE money was going and my answer was that it had been going to commodities and gold. I did, however, take a very conservative bet on precious metals & mining with a timeline of one year--and I did take some profits off the table at the end of the year. Just dumb luck...anything could have made it go the other way, but if it did, I didn't bet enough to the point where I would spend the rest of my life living in a dumpster and eating surplus government cheese.

I'm thinking that yes you called the market downturn - any thinking individual could see it coming - just not the timing of it. But I'm also thinking that you'll never be able to call the bottom because you're so negative on everything related to this market.

A lot more folks got into real estate than were ever into the stock markets. The economic implications of what happened in RE over the past couple years is unimaginable. I envy the folks who casually look at the RE market as though it were simply a game of Monopoly--although, some of them are going to be dealt a pretty hard financial blow if they continue to think along those lines.

This is my call: - the market will pick up before you ever expect it will.

I'm seriously interested in hearing your synopsis of how the market pick-up is going to play out. Please be specific...start with defining "Pick-up" and expand from there.

 

[pgurney]

Quite the contrary--I'm not one to talk about all my successes in investing...I think people who do that are wearisome. (i.e., like the crap-talk over cocktails that went on during the tech run-up and the dot.condo grab)

As I suspected. Don't claim anything....just be negative about .....well...whatever.

(1) Diversify, diversify, diversify
(2) Invest more in "experiences" and less in "things" ... unless, of course, your life-long goal is to be the "Richest Person in the Graveyard"

You ask me to be specific later, but all you have to say is be "diversified"?.

Someone asked me where the RE money was going and my answer was that it had been going to commodities and gold. I did, however, take a very conservative bet on precious metals & mining with a timeline of one year--and I did take some profits off the table at the end of the year. Just dumb luck...anything could have made it go the other way, but if it did, I didn't bet enough to the point where I would spend the rest of my life living in a dumpster and eating surplus government cheese.

No, you touted precious metals.

A lot more folks got into real estate than were ever into the stock markets. The economic implications of what happened in RE over the past couple years is unimaginable. I envy the folks who casually look at the RE market as though it were simply a game of Monopoly--although, some of them are going to be dealt a pretty hard financial blow if they continue to think along those lines.

Do you seriously believe that more people are invested into RE than their companies stock option plans, E-trade, stocks in general, that is a complete exaggeration!

I'm seriously interested in hearing your synopsis of how the market pick-up is going to play out. Please be specific...start with defining "Pick-up" and expand from there.

I only said that I don't think you'll be able to call the bottom. I don't pretend to know all. I only said that I don't think you'll ever call the bottom.

 

[SHELLY]

As I suspected. Don't claim anything....just be negative about .....well...whatever.

K

You ask me to be specific later, but all you have to say is be "diversified"?.

DIVERSIFIED For Ballast: Mutual Funds or ETFs (US, Intn'l, Emerging Mkts, Growth, Value, Small/mid/large cap), bonds (Short/mid/long-term, gvmt, munis, corp), Real Estate (Primary home/REITs), CDs/Money Mkt. For Fun with money you won't miss: Individual company stocks, commodities, other real estate.

No, you touted precious metals.

Do you seriously believe that more people are invested into RE than their companies stock option plans, E-trade, stocks in general

Yes I do. "Invested" (your word not mine) is a word that has been bandied around in the real estate market as of late and is even applied to one's primary home.

More people are homeowners...uh....make that homeOWERs than are stock owners--thanks to the proliferation of "NeverSayNo Mortgage Companies" that sprung up like kudzu in every strip mall across the nation during the past couple of years.

I only said that I don't think you'll ever call the bottom.

You're right...that's just my little secret ;-)


.

 

[TheSheep]

I believe some, including Shelly, will see the bottom before most (it ain't here yet). Just like they saw the downturn before most. I disagree with you about most people seeing the downturn coming. Do some research from 2005 (including old posts on this forum) and you will see mostly bulls touting the continued runup in real estate and just a few bears saying the end was upon us. It took until the market was in a free fall before most of the bulls were able to see the writing on the wall.

I am so sorry to RAM into this fine conversation, I offer my apologies predesentially. I think.

When I was back there in seminary school
There was a person there who put forth the propostion
That you can petition the markets with prayer.

With prayer.

Didn't work.

I have watched beach properties for some time now. How long? When men were men and TheSheep had no fear.

Ever stood in the middle of a fast moving carnival carousel? Round and round and round they go, some get off, fall to the ground, some stay on. Others replace, the carousel never changes, round and round and round.

Truly, after you have watched the carousel many times, it is not hard to see who is pulling the levers, who will fall off, and when the carousel has to be slowed to a near stop to be oiled and fixed and maintained.

The trick is to stand right in the middle. As in the eye of a hurricane, where all is calm and the view is Krystal clear.

Why am I all of a sudden hungry for finger Burgers?

 

[full time]

Re: meeting about property taxes - 1/31/07

Re: load of crap posted by day traders, Amway salesmen, et al - 1/31/07

There, I fixed it for you guys. Got some info from my agent last night. Asked her to check the three bellwether communities - Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary Beach and give me the average sales price per foot in each for 04, 05 and 06. In Seaside and Rosemary Beach, it was up every year - to a high of 800's for Rosemary, 1200's for Seaside. In Watercolor, it fell from upper 600's to upper 500's 05 to 06 but was still up 16% from 04. Granted, there is a lot of inventory and lot prices are down from highs (mainly due to the uncertainty created by build-outs in my opinion) but the housing prices are very solid which I think is a testament to the appeal of this area. The constant haranguing and pontificating from a select few clouds any objective analysis. Personally, I don't think the sky is falling.

 

[fisher]

Re: meeting about property taxes - 1/31/07

Re: load of crap posted by day traders, Amway salesmen, et al - 1/31/07

There, I fixed it for you guys. Got some info from my agent last night. Asked her to check the three bellwether communities - Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary Beach and give me the average sales price per foot in each for 04, 05 and 06. In Seaside and Rosemary Beach, it was up every year - to a high of 800's for Rosemary, 1200's for Seaside. In Watercolor, it fell from upper 600's to upper 500's 05 to 06 but was still up 16% from 04. Granted, there is a lot of inventory and lot prices are down from highs (mainly due to the uncertainty created by build-outs in my opinion) but the housing prices are very solid which I think is a testament to the appeal of this area. The constant haranguing and pontificating from a select few clouds any objective analysis. Personally, I don't think the sky is falling.

Your sample sizes are way too small to make a meaningful statistical analysis of the data in these individual neighborhoods. The Walton County website (not 100% complete but directionally accurate) lists 9 homes (not carriage houses) sold in RM in 2006 and 26 sold in 2005. No way to compare average price statistically speaking on that small a sample. But, it is clear to say that sales were off by 66% and 3 of these homes sold for under $1 million. In Seaside, only 4 homes listed as sold in 2006. Watercolor had more sales than the other two combined but still not nearly enough to be statistically relevant.

If you want to look at some data that you can start to sink your teeth into statistically, you can go to the Real Trend report each month. In December, it showed that the average price for a single family home in Walton County fell 2% year over year. Condo prices were down 21% and lot prices were down 29%. Actual unit sales were off 44% for SFH, condos off 29% and lot sales off 54%. That's some serious slippage in light of significantly increasing inventory.